Connah's Quay vs Cambrian & Clydach: match statistics

Connah's Quay have a clear attacking edge at home: they average 3.5 goals, create chances worth 2.18 xG and register 18 shots per match, compared with Cambrian & Clydach’s 2 goals, 1.49 xG and 12 shots away from home. The hosts control matches more often, averaging 60% possession, while the visitors record 43%. Both teams concede 1 goal per match in the respective conditions, but Connah's Quay’s defence allows opponents lower-quality chances, with an average xG against of 1.01 compared with 1.22 for the visitors. The visitors’ form is solid, having collected 10 points and scored 9 goals in their last five matches; however, Connah's Quay have responded with three consecutive victories, scoring as many as 14 goals in their last five outings. The hosts’ advantage in chance quality and significantly greater attacking strength point towards a home win, although Cambrian & Clydach’s scoring efficiency reduces confidence in this prediction.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by current form, as both teams recorded this scenario in 60% of their last five matches, compared with the league average of 41%. Connah's Quay averaged 2.8 goals scored during this period, while Cambrian & Clydach averaged 1.8, conceding 1.2 and 0.8 goals per match respectively. Their attacking potential is also confirmed by recent xG figures: 1.93 for the hosts and 2.10 for the visitors, while each side allows opponents around 1.11-1.13 xG. The hosts average 19.5 shots, including 9 on target, while the visitors have a high 17% finishing rate, increasing the likelihood that both teams will find the net. However, the signal is not conclusive, as both teams kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season; therefore, the edge for BTTS - Yes remains moderate.

Connah's Quay have averaged 2.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Cambrian & Clydach have averaged 1.8, creating a very strong foundation for at least two goals. The hosts are generating as much as 2.45 xG and 9 shots on target per match this season, while the visitors record 1.49 xG, including 2.10 xG across their last five appearances. In their last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of Connah's Quay games and 60% of Cambrian & Clydach games, although the hosts' full-season figures were noticeably more conservative. Both teams have scored at least one goal in 100% of their matches so far this season, while the projected total of 3.05 goals gives a clear edge to the Over 1.5 goals bet.

The strongest signal is Connah's Quay’s advantage before half-time: in their last five matches, the hosts were leading at the break in 80% of games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals while conceding just 0.4. Over the same period, Cambrian & Clydach scored only 0.4 goals before half-time and went into the break level in 60% of matches. The hosts also create significantly more chances, as reflected by an xG of 2.45 compared with 1.49, as well as an average of 9 shots on target versus 5.5 for their opponents. The visitors are more dangerous after the break, winning the second half in 80% of their last five appearances. However, Connah's Quay concede an average of just 0.5 goals per home match, so the most likely outcome remains that they will hold on to their lead until the final whistle.