Connah's Quay vs Haverfordwest County: match statistics

Connah's Quay have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 3 in that period, while Haverfordwest County have lost all 5 of their games with a 0:11 goal difference. At home, the hosts average 3.33 goals per match, create chances worth 2.03 xG, and keep a clean sheet in as many as 67% of their home appearances. The visitors are yet to score away from home, manage just 1.5 shots on target per game, and record an average xG of only 0.69. The difference in possession is also clear: Connah's Quay average 58% possession, compared with just 27% for Haverfordwest County, which should translate into a decisive home advantage. With the visitors recording a 100% loss rate and failing to score in 100% of their matches, a comfortable Connah's Quay victory is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Haverfordwest County have failed to score both this season and in their last 5 matches, while their percentage of games in which both teams scored stands at 0%. The visitors also create very few chances: their average xG is just 0.69 for the season and 0.92 across their last five appearances, with only 1.5 shots on target per match. Connah's Quay are in significantly better defensive form, conceding an average of 0.6 goals in their last five fixtures, with an against-xG of 0.87. The hosts should score, however, having averaged 3.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while the visitors' defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.93 and conceded an average of 2.2 goals. Even if this is a high-scoring match, the data strongly favours the outcome in which at least one team—above all Haverfordwest County—fails to score.

Connah's Quay are in excellent form, averaging 3.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Haverfordwest County have conceded an average of 2.2 goals over the same period. At the same time, the visitors have failed to score both in the current season and in their last five matches, with their average xG over the last 5 games standing at just 0.92. The hosts should have the upper hand, as their xG over their last 5 appearances is 2.03, while their solid defence conceded just 0.6 goals per match during that period. Both teams have seen 100% of their matches finish under 3.5 goals, while Haverfordwest also have 100% of their games under 2.5 goals, strongly supporting the Under 3.5 goals option. The projected total of 2.40 goals assumes a home win without a major offensive contribution from the visitors, which is why Under 3.5 offers the highest value.

Connah's Quay have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while Haverfordwest County have lost all 5 games and conceded an average of 2.2 goals. The hosts held a lead at the break in each of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.8 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2, whereas the visitors failed to score a single first-half goal during this period. After the break, Connah's Quay continue to show a clear advantage, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 0.4, while Haverfordwest average no goals scored and concede 1.6. The xG figures also point to the hosts, who create chances worth 1.09 goals compared with 0.69 for their opponents, while the visitors' defence allows opponents as much as 2.45 xG. The strongest scenario is therefore a Connah's Quay lead at half-time followed by a win at the final whistle — an HT/FT 1/1 outcome.