Connah's Quay vs The New Saints: match statistics
The New Saints are the clear favorites for this fixture, sitting top of the table with an impressive record of 15 wins this season. The visitors display dominant away form with an 80% win rate on the road and the best goal difference (+18), conceding just 0.5 goals per away game on average. Connah's Quay, despite sitting in second place with decent home form (56% win rate), concede more goals on their own turf (averaging 1.56 per match) and possess a weaker goal difference (+8). The New Saints also boast higher average possession (64% vs 62%) and superior defensive efficiency (60% clean sheets away). While recent form is comparable (4 wins in 5 games for the hosts vs 3 for the visitors), TNS's qualitative and statistical superiority points towards their victory in this direct clash for the top spot.
Connah's Quay vs The New Saints: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connah's Quay played The New Saints in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 31 December 2025. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Connah's Quay: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. The New Saints: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connah's Quay scores 2.11 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. The New Saints scores 2.89 and concedes 0.79. League average: 3.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connah's Quay 58%, The New Saints 37%. Over 2.5: Connah's Quay 74%, The New Saints 68%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
The New Saints has higher xG: 2.12 vs 1.86. Connah's Quay: 14.2 shots per match, The New Saints: 16.6.
Match halves
Connah's Quay: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.26. The New Saints: half-time lead 74%, second-half goals 1.58.
Goals by minute
Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (9 goals). The New Saints: 46-60 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.07 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The New Saints are the clear favorites for this fixture, sitting top of the table with an impressive record of 15 wins this season. The visitors display dominant away form with an 80% win rate on the road and the best goal difference (+18), conceding just 0.5 goals per away game on average. Connah's Quay, despite sitting in second place with decent home form (56% win rate), concede more goals on their own turf (averaging 1.56 per match) and possess a weaker goal difference (+8). The New Saints also boast higher average possession (64% vs 62%) and superior defensive efficiency (60% clean sheets away). While recent form is comparable (4 wins in 5 games for the hosts vs 3 for the visitors), TNS's qualitative and statistical superiority points towards their victory in this direct clash for the top spot.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | The New Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Connah's Quay is 25% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 2.4 pts / match - The New Saints
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
The New Saints is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
2.11 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 2.89 goals / match - The New Saints
The New Saints is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 0.79 goals / match - The New Saints
Connah's Quay scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while The New Saints keeps a clean sheet in 58% (11 of 19 matches).
The New Saints scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - The New Saints
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
The New Saints is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.68 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 2.37 pts / match - The New Saints
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
The New Saints - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 74% of matches and wins 79%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 0% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connah's Quay
The New Saints
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | The New Saints | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.21 | 3.07 | ▲ 3.68 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 51% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 74% | 58% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 29% | ▲ 58% |
| Goal before half-time | • 79% | 78% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 74% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Connah's Quay 0 - 0 - 1 The New Saints. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs The New Saints?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 3:1 The New Saints. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs The New Saints?
Connah's Quay score 2.11 goals per game on average and The New Saints 2.89. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Connah's Quay's matches and 37% of The New Saints's.
What form are Connah's Quay and The New Saints in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and The New Saints 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs The New Saints?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs The New Saints — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.