Connecticut United vs Carolina Core: match statistics
Connecticut United vs Carolina Core: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connecticut United played Carolina Core in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 5 July 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Connecticut United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Carolina Core: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connecticut United scores 1.67 and concedes 1.87 goals per match. Carolina Core scores 1.18 and concedes 1.65. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connecticut United 73%, Carolina Core 65%. Over 2.5: Connecticut United 80%, Carolina Core 59%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Connecticut United has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.42. Connecticut United: 14.1 shots per match, Carolina Core: 12.0.
Match halves
Connecticut United: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.73. Carolina Core: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
Connecticut United: 31-45+ (7 goals). Carolina Core: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connecticut United creates more chances: on average 13.5 shots and 5.83 on target per home match versus Carolina Core's 10.11 shots and 3.44 on target away, and their average xG is 1.68 vs. the visitors' 1.24, indicating higher-quality opportunities. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 12 goals while the guests scored only 7, with both teams averaging 1.4 points per game in that period; Carolina also has not won any away match this season (0% wins). Defensively Connecticut fares better in expected threat — average xG against 1.21 at home versus 1.78 for the away side, and actual goals conceded are 1.83 vs. 2.00 per match. The visitors fail to score in 44% of away games compared to 33% of matches without a goal for the hosts, and Carolina's away goal difference is -10 versus the hosts' -4, so the hosts' main advantages are volume of chances, higher xG and a more resilient defense. Despite a high loss rate for both sides (67%), creation metrics and xG favor a Connecticut United win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS - Yes is favored by the data: Connecticut United posts BTTS at 75% for the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, vs. a league average BTTS of 62%. Carolina Core has a season BTTS of 56% (last 5 matches 40%), but concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game this season compared to Connecticut’s 1.25, which raises the likelihood of both teams scoring. xG and shooting metrics support goal probability: Connecticut generates xG 1.63 and averages 14.13 shots with 4.75 on target; Carolina records xG 1.24 and 10.11 shots with 3.44 on target, while Carolina concedes xG against of 1.78. Additionally, only 25% of Connecticut’s matches and 22% of Carolina’s matches end in a clean sheet, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 50% (home) and 67% (away) respectively, with the combined Over2.5 + BTTS occurring at 50% and 56%. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at roughly 70% vs 30% and recommend "BTTS - Yes" as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects approximately 1.70 expected goals for Connecticut United (xG_for 1.63 vs. xG_against opponents 1.78 → average ≈1.70) and 1.44 for Carolina Core (xG_for 1.24 vs. xG_against hosts 1.63 → ≈1.44), yielding a combined ~3.14 goals. With that total xG, a Poisson model estimates ~82% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~61% for Over 2.5 goals and ~38% for Over 3.5 goals, strongly favoring the over market. Match data confirm this direction: the home side averages 1.5 goals this season and have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 per game) with 100% of those five games exceeding 2.5 goals, while the visitors concede 2.0 goals on average and have 67% of their season matches finishing Over 2.5. The home attack is more active (14.13 shots per match, 11% conversion vs. 10.11 and 9% for the away team) and home matches have seen Both Teams To Score in 75% of cases (away side in 56%), increasing the likelihood of additional goals. Based on the combined xG of 3.14, shot-volume advantage and recent form, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (selection: Over, line 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A typical scenario is 1/1 (home team leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time), because the home side led at the break in 3 of 8 matches (38%) and have a 38% home win rate, while the away team has no wins (0%). The home team scores an average of 1.5 goals per match versus 0.89 for the visitors, and the home xG is 1.63 versus 1.24 for the away side, confirming offensive superiority and more chances (14.13 shots vs 10.11, 4.75 shots on target vs 3.44). In the first half the home team averages 0.63 goals while the away team only 0.22; additionally, 100% of home matches had at least one goal before the break, which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. In the second half the home side also dominates—averaging 0.88 goals and registering 50% wins in second halves versus 11% for the away team—so maintaining or extending the lead after Half-Time is very likely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connecticut United | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connecticut United is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Connecticut United · 1.18 goals / match - Carolina Core
Carolina Core is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.87 goals / match - Connecticut United · 1.65 goals / match - Carolina Core
Connecticut United scores in 80% of matches (12 of 15 matches), while Carolina Core keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
Carolina Core scores in 76% of matches (13 of 17 matches), while Connecticut United keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connecticut United
Over / Under - Carolina Core
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connecticut United is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Connecticut United · 1 pts / match - Carolina Core
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connecticut United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Carolina Core - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connecticut United
Carolina Core
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Connecticut United | Liga | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.53 | 3.24 | ▼ 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 61% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 65% | ▼ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 22% | ▲ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 93% | 84% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
FAQ
What was the result of Connecticut United vs Carolina Core?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Connecticut United 3:1 Carolina Core. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Connecticut United vs Carolina Core?
Connecticut United score 1.67 goals per game on average and Carolina Core 1.18. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Connecticut United's matches and 65% of Carolina Core's.
What form are Connecticut United and Carolina Core in?
Over the last 5 games Connecticut United have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Carolina Core 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connecticut United vs Carolina Core?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Connecticut United vs Carolina Core: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.