Connecticut United vs FC Cincinnati II: match statistics
Connecticut United vs FC Cincinnati II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connecticut United played FC Cincinnati II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 18 June 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Connecticut United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. FC Cincinnati II: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connecticut United scores 1.54 and concedes 1.85 goals per match. FC Cincinnati II scores 0.92 and concedes 1.77. League average: 3.25 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connecticut United 77%, FC Cincinnati II 38%. Over 2.5: Connecticut United 77%, FC Cincinnati II 54%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Connecticut United has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.24. Connecticut United: 13.9 shots per match, FC Cincinnati II: 9.7.
Match halves
Connecticut United: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.77. FC Cincinnati II: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Connecticut United: 31-45+ (6 goals). FC Cincinnati II: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.25 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connecticut United has the edge in chance creation and better recent form: in the last five matches they scored 10 goals (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and have home xG of 1.56, while FC Cincinnati II scored only 1 goal in their last five matches and have away xG of 1.21. The hosts average 12.5 shots and 5 on-target per home match versus the visitors’ 9.17 shots and 3.5 on-target away, translating into higher-quality chances for Connecticut despite both teams having an equally low conversion rate (4%). Defensively the visitors look weaker — FC Cincinnati II concedes 2.33 goals per away match and have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 games, whereas the hosts concede 1.75 goals in home matches. The risk for the hosts stems from having not yet won at home (0% wins) and failing to score in 50% of home appearances, but they have recently averaged 1.4 points per match in their last five games compared to 0 points for the visitors. Considering the hosts’ superior xG (1.56 vs 1.21), higher shot volume and the visitors’ dire run (0 points in the last 5 matches and 100% away defeats), I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend no BTTS: I assign 70% probability to 'No' and 30% to 'Yes', because FC Cincinnati II have very low scoring efficiency – averaging 0.33 goals per game for the season and only 0.2 in the last 5 matches (1 goal in 5), while Connecticut United record 1.43 goals for the season and 2.0 in the last 5 (10 goals). Despite similar xG (home xG 1.27 vs away 1.21), the conversion gap of 14% vs 4% clearly shows the visitors fail to convert created chances. Additionally, FC Cincinnati II concede on average 2.33 goals for the season and 2.2 in the last 5, which means the hosts are likely to score, but the hosts' own goals conceded (1.29 seasonally, 1.8 in the last 5) do not translate into the visitors' ability to respond. Season BTTS rates are 43% for Connecticut and 33% for Cincinnati, and the last 5 form balance (80% BTTS for the hosts vs 20% for the visitors) ultimately gives a stronger signal against Both Teams To Score (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is 1.27 (Connecticut United) + 1.21 (FC Cincinnati II) = 2.48, and in the last 5 matches Connecticut scores an average of 2.0 goals (10 goals) versus 0.2 goals (1 goal) for visitors, therefore I project 1.70 for the home side and 0.70 for the away side, total 2.40. Season Over 1.5 rates are 57% for Connecticut and 83% for Cincinnati II (average 70%), and the fact both teams have 100% of matches with over 0.5 goals and the league average is 3.23 goals/match reinforces a minimum-2-goal scenario. Connecticut has better shot conversion (14% on 10.14 shots) than the visitors (4% on 9.17), and FC Cincinnati II concedes an average of 2.33 goals per game, which supports the home advantage in creating and converting chances. The signal for Over 2.5 is weaker: season Over 2.5 is 57%/50% (average 53%) and the combined xG = 2.48 is very close to the 2.5 threshold, so I adopt a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (52%). As a result the strongest and best-justified selection is Over 1.5 (over) due to the combination of xG, home form and the difference in shooting efficiency.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I project a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of draw at the break and Connecticut United winning (X/1) as the most probable. In the last five matches the home side were level at half-time in 60% of cases (3 of 5) and averaged 1.0 goals by the break, whereas FC Cincinnati II did not lead at half-time in any of those five games (0%) and averaged 0.0 first-half goals. In the second half the home team is markedly more dangerous — they score an average of 1.14 goals after the break versus 0.17 for the visitors, and the visitors concede an average of 1.33 second-half goals, which favors a turnaround from a half-time draw. Additionally, FC Cincinnati II have lost 100% of matches this season (losePercentage_away 100.0), the season average goals for the home side is 1.43 compared to 0.33 for the visitors, and the home team shows higher conversion (14% vs 4%) and more shots on target (4.0 vs 3.5). For these reasons the X/1 variant carries the highest weight in the forecast.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connecticut United | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connecticut United is 67% better for: goals scored per match.
1.54 goals / match - Connecticut United · 0.92 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.85 goals / match - Connecticut United · 1.77 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II
Connecticut United scores in 77% of matches (10 of 13 matches), while FC Cincinnati II keeps a clean sheet in 15% (2 of 13 matches).
FC Cincinnati II scores in 54% of matches (7 of 13 matches), while Connecticut United keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connecticut United
Over / Under - FC Cincinnati II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connecticut United is 111% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.31 pts / match - Connecticut United · 0.62 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connecticut United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FC Cincinnati II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connecticut United
FC Cincinnati II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Connecticut United | Liga | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.38 | 3.25 | ▼ 2.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 77% | 63% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 77% | 65% | ▼ 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 8% | 21% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 75% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 84% | • 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Connecticut United 1 - 0 - 0 FC Cincinnati II. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connecticut United vs FC Cincinnati II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Connecticut United 4:0 FC Cincinnati II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Connecticut United vs FC Cincinnati II?
Connecticut United score 1.54 goals per game on average and FC Cincinnati II 0.92. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.25 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 77% of Connecticut United's matches and 38% of FC Cincinnati II's.
What form are Connecticut United and FC Cincinnati II in?
Over the last 5 games Connecticut United have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and FC Cincinnati II 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connecticut United vs FC Cincinnati II?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.