Connecticut United vs New York RB II: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Connecticut United, despite being 20th in the table vs New York RB II in 6th, have a markedly better points run — in the last 5 matches they scored 15 goals and won 4 of 5 (wwlww), averaging 3.0 goals and 2.4 points per match. The visitors in their last 5 games scored 13 goals and won only twice, equating to 2.6 goals per match and 1.4 points per match, and their away record shows GD -5. The hosts create more chances and are more efficient: 5.75 shots on target and 13.38 shots per match at home with 12% conversion versus 4.56 shots on target, 12.67 overall and 10% conversion for the visitors. Defensive metrics are similar in goals conceded (1.75 vs 1.78) and xG against (1.29 vs 1.40), but the hosts have higher xG for (1.63 vs 1.58) and 25% clean sheets at home versus 0% away clean sheets for New York RB II. Based on this I assess chances as 60% for the hosts, 20% for a draw and 20% for the visitors — the hosts’ offensive edge and form should outweigh the visitors’ away issues.

Seasonal indicators strongly support BTTS - Yes: home side have 67% and New York RB II 78% with a league average of 62%, indicating both teams’ propensity to score. Connecticut averages 3.11 goals per game with xG 2.02 and a conversion rate of 18%, while visitors concede 1.78 goals on average and have xG against 1.4, highlighting attacking opportunities for the hosts. New York RB II record 1.22 goals per game and xG 1.58, and the hosts concede 1.22 goals seasonally, so the away side also have statistical basis to score. In the last 5 matches the hosts show BTTS in 80% and average 3.0 goals, while the visitors show BTTS in 40% and average 2.6 goals, which somewhat lowers confidence in the away side but does not negate the seasonal trends. Additionally, clean sheets are 33% for the hosts and 0% for the visitors, and matches with over 2.5 goals occur in 89% and 78% of games — combined calculations yield 78% for Both Teams To Score and 22% against.

Connecticut United averages 3.11 goals scored at home with xG 2.02 and 6.89 shots on target per match. New York RB II away averages 1.22 goals with xG 1.58 and 4.56 shots on target. My model (averaging xG and historical values) gives expected 2.08 goals for the home side and 1.33 for the visitors, total 3.41 goals. Seasonal stats show Over 1.5 occurred in 100% of matches for both teams, Over 2.5 in 89% of home matches and 78% of away matches, and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 100% of cases. In 67% of home matches and 78% of away matches both teams scored at least one goal, which further supports a high-scoring scenario, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5; Over 2.5 remains attractive (~78%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~47%).

Type: 1/1 — I forecast Connecticut United to lead at the break and to win the match. The home side led at half-time in 56% of their matches, and their average goals by half-time are 1.22 versus 0.56 for New York RB II, giving them a clear advantage before the interval. In the second half Connecticut United average 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while registering an xG of 2.02 compared to the visitors’ 1.58, along with 6.89 shots on target versus 4.56 and a conversion rate of 18% versus 10%, so they are more likely to hold or extend the lead. On this basis I assigned the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (47%), whereas scenarios with the visitors leading at half-time or winning the match received much lower shares due to weaker shooting statistics and xG.