Consadole Sapporo vs Tochigi City: match statistics

Tochigi City are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in that run, while Consadole Sapporo have suffered 4 defeats, conceding as many as 11 goals. The visitors also create more danger away from home, averaging 15.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, compared with the hosts’ 13 shots and 5 on target. Sapporo do average 1.5 goals per home game and have an xG of 1.49, but their defence concedes 2 goals on average, which could be exploited by the visitors’ in-form attack. Tochigi City have a higher away xG of 1.79, while their tally of 9 goals after 4 matches this season is better than the hosts’ 5. Both teams have a 50% win rate in the current conditions, but the recent-match trend and greater attacking intensity favour the visitors.

The signal for goals at both ends is strengthened by recent form: BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of Consadole Sapporo’s last five matches and in 60% of Tochigi City’s games. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, while the visitors scored as many as 2.2 goals, backed by Tochigi City’s high xG of 2.09. Tochigi City have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season, while Consadole Sapporo average 18 shots and create 1.99 xG, which strongly supports their scoring prospects. Some risk remains due to the hosts’ 50% clean-sheet rate across the season and the visitors’ 50% rate of matches without scoring, but the current attacking and defensive numbers point more strongly towards a BTTS scenario. The "Yes" pick is also above the league BTTS average of 45%, as both teams currently display a clearly open goal-scoring profile.

Both teams come into this fixture after high-scoring matches: in their last five appearances, Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of games for both Sapporo and Tochigi City. During this period, Sapporo conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Tochigi City scored 2.2, which particularly strengthens the visitors’ attacking potential. Tochigi City has averaged 2.09 xG over its last five matches, while the hosts allow opponents 1.25 xG, and their defence has conceded 11 goals in total during this stretch of the season. The hosts should still contribute a goal, as their opponents have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match, while Sapporo averages 18 shots per game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have recorded at least two goals in 100% of their matches so far this season, and the projected 3.20 goals provides this line with a clear safety margin.

Consadole have more often started matches well: in their last five games, they were leading at the break in 60% of cases, compared with just 20% for Tochigi City, while the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 60% of those matches. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average xG of 1.99, while Tochigi’s xG conceded stands at 1.96, strengthening the likelihood of an early Consadole advantage. After the break, however, the picture is clearly more favourable for the visitors: across their last five matches, they scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded just 0.2, whereas Consadole scored 0.4 and allowed opponents to score 1.6. Tochigi City won the second half in 80% of those matches, while Consadole lost it in 80%, making a turnaround leading to an away win the most likely scenario. In addition, the teams’ current full-time results favour Tochigi, who won 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% victories for Consadole.