Córdoba vs CD Tenerife: match statistics

Córdoba hold a slight edge thanks to the quality of the chances they create at home: their average xG is 1.63, compared with CD Tenerife’s 1.00 away from home. The hosts also average 15.33 shots per home match, versus 8 shots for the visitors in away games, although they score just 1 goal per match from those chances, compared with Tenerife’s 1.33. Recent form favors the visitors: they have taken 5 points from their last 5 league matches, while Córdoba have managed 3, and conceded 12 goals compared with Tenerife’s 8. However, both defences remain prone to errors—the hosts concede an average of 2 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.33 away—so despite the lean towards Córdoba, the outcome remains open.

It is more likely that at least one team will fail to score, with the visitors the likelier candidate: Córdoba concede an average of just 0.5 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. CD Tenerife do average 1.33 goals scored away, but they fail to score in 33% of those matches, with an average xG of 1.00. The hosts have a strong chance of finding the net, as the visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. However, the evidence is not conclusive: BTTS - Yes landed in 25% of Córdoba’s home matches, compared with 67% of Tenerife’s away matches, so the edge on BTTS - No is moderate.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: all of Tenerife’s away matches have gone over this line, although this has happened in 50% of Córdoba’s home games. Córdoba average 1.0 goals scored at home, while Tenerife concede 2.33 goals away, increasing the likelihood of the hosts finding the net. The visitors average 1.33 goals scored away, but Córdoba concede just 0.5 goals at home and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of those matches. Higher lines are less convincing: none of Córdoba’s home matches have gone over 2.5 goals, whereas 67% of Tenerife’s away matches have gone over both 2.5 and 3.5 goals. This discrepancy supports the more cautious Over 1.5 goals line, with a projected total of 2.60 goals.

The strongest signal points to Córdoba leading at the break: they have done so in 3 of 4 home matches and have not conceded in the first half in any of them. Tenerife concede an average of 1.33 goals before half-time away from home, while the hosts score an average of 0.75 in that period, making an early Córdoba lead more likely than an away lead. The defensive disparity supports Córdoba holding on to their advantage: they concede an average of 0.5 goals per home match, compared with Tenerife’s 2.33 away, and Tenerife have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts also have a higher average xG, 1.31 versus 1.00 for the visitors, although their 4 defeats in the last 5 matches warrant caution. Despite this risk, the combination of Córdoba’s strong first halves and Tenerife’s weak away defence makes the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the most likely scenario.