Córdoba vs SD Huesca: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). Córdoba record a 45% home win rate, score on average 1.35 goals per match with xG 1.96 and 5.55 shots on target, while SD Huesca win only 10% of away games and score 0.85 goals on average with xG 1.02 and 2.6 shots on target. The hosts also have a clear advantage in possession (60% vs 45%) and fail to score less often — Córdoba fail to score in only 15% of home matches, whereas Huesca fail to score in 40% of away fixtures. Defensively the visitors are weaker: Huesca concede 1.9 goals on average away versus 1.35 conceded by Córdoba at home, and in the last 5 matches Córdoba have scored 7 goals and recorded 3 wins (an average of 1.8 points per match), while Huesca have 4 goals and 0.8 points per match. For these reasons I assign a 65% probability to a home win, 20% to a draw and 15% to an away win.

Córdoba has a season BTTS rate of 62% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while SD Huesca records 50% seasonally and 40% in the last 5. Córdoba averages 1.1 goals per match with xG 1.37, and Huesca concedes as many as 1.9 goals per match, which significantly increases the likelihood of goals for the hosts. Conversely, Huesca scores only 0.85 goals per match and fails to score in 40% of fixtures, while Córdoba keeps a clean sheet in just 29% of matches, offering mixed signals from the away side. In the last 5 matches Córdoba averaged 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded (7-7), Huesca 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded (4-7), and the advantage in shots on target (3.67 vs 2.6) and higher recent xG (2.1 vs 1.25) support that both teams have realistic chances to score. Considering the league BTTS level of 56% and the combination of Córdoba’s superior attacking quality and Huesca’s vulnerable defense, I tip BTTS = Yes (62%) vs No (38%).

I assess a strong probability for Over 1.5 goals: Córdoba has a season Over 1.5 rate of 71%, Huesca 65%, and the xG-based estimate for total goals is about 2.71 (home xG 1.37 and xG of Huesca’s defense 1.62 give expected home goals ≈1.50; away xG 1.02 and xG of Córdoba’s defense 1.39 give expected away goals ≈1.21). Additionally, both-teams-to-score percentages are 62% for Córdoba and 50% for Huesca, while the league average is 2.64 goals per match, which supports a tendency toward results above minimal lines. Season Over 2.5 is 38% for Córdoba and 50% for Huesca (average 44%), but Córdoba’s last 5 matches show higher xG (avg 2.1), so I assign a moderate 56% probability to Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is considerably less likely (seasonally 14% and 25%), hence only ~23% chance for 3.5+, and the strongest signal from the data remains the Over on the 1.5 line.

Half-time statistics point to a draw: Córdoba were level at the break in 10 matches (48%) and Huesca in 9 matches (45%), with leads at the break recorded in only 4 instances for each side (19% vs 20%). After the interval the hosts are favored — Córdoba have a 60% win rate in the last 5 matches versus Huesca’s 20%, and average points per game are 1.33 for Córdoba against 0.45 for Huesca. Córdoba generate higher xG (1.37 vs 1.02) and score more frequently late in matches: 11 goals in minutes 76–90 versus Huesca’s 4, while the visitors concede on average 1.9 goals per game, which supports the likelihood of a turnaround after half-time. For these reasons the strongest signal is a half-time draw with a home win after full-time, hence X/1 is the most reliable scenario. I estimate 34% for X/1, 20% for 1/1, 18% for X/X, and the combined probability of a Huesca victory after full-time is about 9% (consistent with their seasonal win percentage of 10%).