Corinthians vs Chapecoense: match statistics

Corinthians have a clear home advantage: they average 1.00 goals scored and concede just 0.85 at home, while Chapecoense score 0.67 goals away from home and allow opponents to score 1.83. The hosts create better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.40 compared with the visitors’ 1.14, while Chapecoense’s defence allows opponents as much as 2.07 xG per match. The visitors have not won any away game, have lost 75% of such matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion. Both teams are in poor recent form, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last five appearances, but Chapecoense have conceded 10 goals during this period compared with Corinthians’ 5. Home advantage, Corinthians’ higher 55% possession rate and the visitors’ very weak defence all point towards a home win, although their failure to score in 38% of home matches increases the likelihood of a low-scoring game or a draw.

BTTS occurred in 67% of Corinthians’ matches and 58% of Chapecoense’s games over the course of the season, providing a moderately clear signal for goals from both sides. Chapecoense have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.83 goals, with a high xG against of 2.07, so the home side should create good chances. Corinthians also have poor defensive protection: they concede an average of 2.25 goals per match and prevented a goal in only 17% of their games. Recent form nevertheless reduces confidence in the pick, as Corinthians have scored just 3 goals in five matches, with BTTS landing in only 40% of those games. Despite this, Chapecoense averaged 1.2 goals during this period, while their xG stood at 1.42 compared with Corinthians’ recent 1.27 xG conceded. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes outcome is marginally more likely.

Corinthians create chances worth an average of 1.52 xG at home, while Chapecoense allow opponents 2.07 xG away from home, which points to the hosts scoring one or two goals. However, the visitors average just 0.67 goals per away match and 2.83 shots on target, limiting their offensive potential and the projected total goals. Corinthians have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, although Chapecoense conceded 10 during that period, making a scoreline around 2-1 more likely than an open, high-scoring game. Historically, Chapecoense matches have finished below 3.5 goals in 83% of cases, while this outcome occurred in 42% of Corinthians’ matches, giving a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Corinthians were level after 45 minutes in 58% of their matches and Chapecoense in 50%, with the home side leading at the break in just 8% of games and the visitors in 0%. Chapecoense have averaged only 0.08 goals before half-time and failed to score in the first half in as many as 92% of matches, clearly supporting a cautious start. After the interval, however, the home side should be able to exploit their quality advantage: their average xG stands at 1.52 compared with 1.14 for their opponents, while they produce an average of 4.25 shots on target per match versus 2.83 for Chapecoense. The visitors have not won a single match this season, collect only 0.25 points per game and concede an average of 1.83 goals, which is why the HT/FT scenario of a draw followed by a Corinthians win has the strongest foundations. Although Corinthians have scored only 0.6 goals per match across their last five fixtures, Chapecoense have conceded an average of 2.0 goals over the same period, increasing the likelihood of a home turnaround after the break.