Coritiba vs Atlético PR: match statistics

Coritiba are 7th in the table, but they have collected 10 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins, while Atlético PR have taken 8 points during the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.23 goals per match and create chances worth 1.31 xG, whereas the visitors post lower away figures: 1.15 goals and 1.18 xG. Atlético PR have the better overall season record, with 38 goals scored and 28 conceded compared with Coritiba’s 34 and 35, but they have lost 46% of their away matches and have a -3 goal difference on the road. Coritiba’s defence also offers no complete guarantee, allowing opponents 1.74 xG per home match; however, Atlético PR fail to score in 31% of their away fixtures. Home advantage and the hosts’ stronger recent form slightly favour a narrow victory for Coritiba, although a draw remains a very realistic outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is strengthened by current form: Coritiba recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Atlético PR did so in 80%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas the visitors scored 2.0 goals and conceded 1.8. Both defenses also allowed opponents high-quality chances, with average xG against them standing at 2.04 and 2.02, respectively. The seasonal BTTS rate of 54% for both teams is only slightly below the league average of 57%, but their current attacking numbers clearly increase the chances of goals from both sides. Coritiba kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches, but Atlético PR failed to score in as many as 31%, which presents some risk to the pick. However, the stronger data from recent matches points to BTTS - Yes.

Coritiba score an average of 1.77 goals at home, while Atlético PR concede 1.38 away from home, supporting a projection of approximately 1.72 goals for the hosts. The visitors have lower attacking potential: their away average stands at 1.15 goals, whereas Coritiba concede just 0.77 at home; the xG figures also point to a home advantage, 1.59 compared with 1.18. The teams’ last five matches were more open, with 80% of Coritiba’s games and 60% of Atlético PR’s finishing Over 2.5 goals, while the average xG against both teams exceeded 2.00. Nevertheless, the 3.5 line remains attractive for the under, as as many as 77% of the league matches involving each team ended with a maximum of three goals. The high probability of 2–3 goals, combined with the limited regularity of four-goal outcomes, gives the edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Coritiba hold a clear advantage over the course of the match: at home, they score an average of 1.77 goals and concede just 0.77, while Atlético PR concede 1.38 goals away from home. The hosts have won 62% of their matches, whereas the visitors have lost as many as 46%, reinforcing the scenario of Coritiba maintaining their lead until the final whistle. In the first halves, Coritiba led in 38% of matches and kept a clean sheet in 62%, while Atlético PR went into the break trailing in as many as 54% of their away fixtures. The hosts also have the edge in chance quality, with an average xG of 1.59 compared with 1.18 for the visitors, while their average number of shots on target is 5.62 versus 4.08. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore Coritiba leading at the break and securing the win, although the hosts' high 54% half-time draw rate makes a draw after 45 minutes followed by a home win a significant alternative.