Coritiba vs Mirassol: match statistics

Coritiba head into this match in clearly superior recent form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 8 goals in that run, whereas Mirassol have failed to win any of their five matches, scoring just 4 goals. The home advantage is reflected in their results at their own stadium, where they win 42% of matches and average 1.25 goals, while Mirassol win just 9% of their away games and concede an average of 1.64 goals. The visitors have struggled for attacking consistency, failing to score in 36% of away matches, with an average of 0.91 goals per game and an 8% shot conversion rate. Coritiba create slightly better chances in terms of xG, 1.27 compared with Mirassol’s 1.19, and also register more shots on target, 3.58 to 3.09 per match. However, the hosts’ defense is not impenetrable, and with Mirassol drawing four of their last five league matches, the likelihood of a closely contested game increases. Nevertheless, Coritiba’s advantage should be enough to secure the win.

BTTS - Yes is strongly supported by both teams’ seasonal results: Coritiba has seen this scenario in 77% of matches, while Mirassol has done so in 64%, compared with the league average of 59%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of cases, despite Mirassol scoring only 0.8 goals per match during this period. The defences allow opponents space to create chances, with Coritiba conceding an average of 1.46 goals per season and Mirassol 1.64, while recording clean sheets in just 8% and 0% of matches respectively. The hosts should create more chances thanks to an average of 1.69 xG and 5.54 shots on target per match, while Mirassol could benefit from Coritiba’s high 1.99 xG conceded over their last five appearances. The biggest risk to this pick is Mirassol’s 36% of matches without scoring this season, but the overall defensive profile of both teams and the current BTTS streak support the “Yes” option.

Coritiba average 1.69 xG at home and record 5.54 shots on target per match, while Mirassol allow an average of 1.69 xG away from home, which clearly supports the hosts scoring. However, the visitors score just 0.91 goals per away game and find the net in 64% of matches, despite Coritiba conceding in as many as 92% of their home fixtures. In the competition, Coritiba’s matches finished below 3.5 goals in 77% of cases, compared with 64% for Mirassol, while more than 4 goals were scored in only 8% and 9% of matches, respectively. Mirassol’s last five games produced just 0.8 goals scored per match, so even against a vulnerable home defence, a very high-scoring game is difficult to expect. The projected 2.58 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of 2-3 goals, making Under 3.5 goals the safest pick.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Coritiba were level at the break in 54% of their matches, compared with 36% for Mirassol, while these teams averaged just 1.08 and 1.36 goals respectively in the first half. The last five matches involving both sides were even more tightly contested before the break: they produced an average of only 0.6 goals, and none featured more than one goal before the 45th minute. After the interval, the advantage should shift to the hosts, who averaged 1.2 goals scored across their last five appearances, while Mirassol conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period. Coritiba also have a clearly superior overall-season record: they win 38% of their matches compared with Mirassol’s 9%, and their xG stands at 1.69 versus 1.19 for the visitors. Therefore, X/1 is the strongest selection.