Correcaminos UAT vs Durango: match statistics

Correcaminos UAT have the better record over their last five matches: 3 wins, a draw and a defeat, while Durango have won just 2 and lost 3. The hosts are clearly more efficient, averaging 2.5 goals at home with a 20% shot conversion rate, compared with Durango’s 0.67 goals and just 6% efficiency away from home. Correcaminos also create more danger in the final third, recording 5.5 shots on target and an xG of 1.62 per match, versus 2.33 shots on target and an xG of 1.29 for the visitors. However, Durango defend solidly away from home, conceding an average of 0.67 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of such matches, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. The hosts’ weakness is their defensive record, with no clean sheets and 2 goals conceded per home match, but their superiority in chance creation and finishing supports a Correcaminos UAT win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Durango’s poor finishing: the team averages only 0.67 goals, and just 0.6 goals across their last five matches. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games, while BTTS has occurred in 0% of their matches this season and only 20% of their last five. Correcaminos are in a strong attacking run, scoring 2.8 goals per game in their last five outings, but Durango average just 2.33 shots on target and have a 6% conversion rate, limiting the visitors’ chances of finding a response. The hosts do concede an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches; however, Durango’s low scoring output is a stronger signal than Correcaminos’ high BTTS rate of 100% over this period. The most likely scenario is therefore that Correcaminos score, while at least one team—primarily Durango—fails to find the net.

In their last 5 matches, Correcaminos averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with all of these games going over 2.5 goals. Durango, however, has a far more conservative profile: they have scored an average of just 0.6 goals in their last 5 appearances, and only 40% of their matches went over 2.5 goals. The teams’ average xG figures—1.49 for Correcaminos and 1.27 for Durango—point to a game with chances, but not necessarily an open contest leading to four goals. In addition, both teams have recorded 100% of their seasonal matches under 3.5 goals, making Under 3.5 goals the most reliable option.

Correcaminos are showing significantly better current form: they have won 60% of their last five matches, averaged 2.8 goals, and held a lead at the break in 60% of those games. Over the same period, Durango have failed to lead at half-time even once, scored just 0.2 goals in the first 45 minutes, and lost 60% of their matches. The hosts have recently averaged 1.6 goals after the interval, while the visitors have managed only 0.4, strengthening the scenario of Correcaminos maintaining or extending their advantage. Although Durango have better full-season results, their current three-match losing streak and 1.4 goals conceded per game point to an advantage for Correcaminos. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/1: the hosts to lead at half-time and win at the final whistle.