Correcaminos UAT vs Tapatío: match statistics
Tapatío presents significantly better form in the last five matches, earning 2.4 points per match and winning four of their last five meetings. Correcaminos UAT, on the other hand, is in fatal disposition, with a goal difference of -11 in home matches and only 20% wins at their own stadium. The hosts concede an average of 2.2 goals per match at home, which, combined with poor offensive effectiveness (1.1 goals per match), places them in a very unfavorable situation. Although Tapatío does not impress in away matches (20% wins), their current form and advantage in goal difference and general statistics give them a real chance to secure three points. Considering all factors, I expect a victory for the visitors, though a draw cannot be ruled out due to Tapatío's weaker statistics on the road.
Correcaminos UAT vs Tapatío: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Correcaminos UAT played Tapatío in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Correcaminos UAT: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Tapatío: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Correcaminos UAT scores 1.00 and concedes 2.25 goals per match. Tapatío scores 1.70 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Correcaminos UAT 65%, Tapatío 60%. Over 2.5: Correcaminos UAT 60%, Tapatío 60%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tapatío has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.12. Correcaminos UAT: 8.9 shots per match, Tapatío: 12.4.
Match halves
Correcaminos UAT: half-time lead 5%, second-half goals 0.65. Tapatío: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.80.
Goals by minute
Correcaminos UAT: 76-90+ (8 goals). Tapatío: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tapatío presents significantly better form in the last five matches, earning 2.4 points per match and winning four of their last five meetings. Correcaminos UAT, on the other hand, is in fatal disposition, with a goal difference of -11 in home matches and only 20% wins at their own stadium. The hosts concede an average of 2.2 goals per match at home, which, combined with poor offensive effectiveness (1.1 goals per match), places them in a very unfavorable situation. Although Tapatío does not impress in away matches (20% wins), their current form and advantage in goal difference and general statistics give them a real chance to secure three points. Considering all factors, I expect a victory for the visitors, though a draw cannot be ruled out due to Tapatío's weaker statistics on the road.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Correcaminos UAT | Tapatío | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tapatío is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Correcaminos UAT · 2.4 pts / match - Tapatío
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 70% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Correcaminos UAT · 1.7 goals / match - Tapatío
Tapatío is 73% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.25 goals / match - Correcaminos UAT · 1.3 goals / match - Tapatío
Correcaminos UAT scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
Tapatío scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Correcaminos UAT keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Correcaminos UAT
Over / Under - Tapatío
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 230% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.5 pts / match - Correcaminos UAT · 1.65 pts / match - Tapatío
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Correcaminos UAT - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 5% of matches and wins 15%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 40%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Correcaminos UAT
Tapatío
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Correcaminos UAT | Liga | Tapatío | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.25 | 2.91 | • 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 54% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 53% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 27% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 74% | ▲ 90% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 79% | • 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Correcaminos UAT 0 - 1 - 0 Tapatío. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Correcaminos UAT vs Tapatío?
The Ascenso MX match finished Correcaminos UAT 2:2 Tapatío. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Correcaminos UAT vs Tapatío?
Correcaminos UAT score 1.00 goals per game on average and Tapatío 1.70. The Ascenso MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Correcaminos UAT's matches and 60% of Tapatío's.
What form are Correcaminos UAT and Tapatío in?
Over the last 5 games Correcaminos UAT have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Tapatío 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Correcaminos UAT vs Tapatío?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.