Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics

Tepatitlán de Morelos has a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), averaging 1.4 points per game, while Correcaminos UAT has not won any of their last five matches (0–1–4) and averages just 0.2 points per game. The biggest gap is in defense — the home side conceded 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per game), while the visitors conceded 6 goals (1.2 per game), which significantly increases the guests’ chances of winning. Offensively both teams are similar: the hosts scored 7 goals in the last 5 (1.4 per game) and the visitors 6 goals (1.2 per game), but the high number of goals conceded by the hosts diminishes the value of their offensive output. Lack of detailed data on shots on target and xG (values 0 in the provided stats) hampers evaluation of the quality of created chances, so I base the assessment mainly on goal and points balance from the last 5 matches. On that basis I back the away win — estimated probabilities: away 60%, draw 20%, home 20%.

Short- and medium-term indicators favor BTTS - Yes: the home team has 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches (5/5), averaging 1.4 goals scored and conceding 2.8 per game, indicating significant defensive vulnerability (14 conceded in the last 5). The away team has 40% BTTS in their last 5, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, with recent offensive xG of 1.41 versus xG against 1.12, giving them a real chance to score. Additionally, both sides generate similar chance volumes: offensive xG 1.5 for the home side and 1.41 for the visitors, and the home team averages 3 on-target shots and 10 shots per match, so an exchange of goals is likely. The only counter-signal is a high league clean sheet rate of 86% and season zeros in some fields, but short-term form (14 conceded by the home team vs 6 scored by the visitors in the last 5) outweighs that. Therefore I project BTTS "Yes" at 68% versus 32% for "No", because the combination of the home side's 100% BTTS and the visitors' 1.2 average goals scored in the last 5 provides a stronger signal for both teams to score.

Correcaminos scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 1.4) and conceded 14 (avg 2.8), while Tepatitlán scored 6 in their last 5 (1.2) and conceded 6 (1.2). Average xG over the last 5 matches is 1.5 for Correcaminos and 1.41 for Tepatitlán, with average xG against of 1.64 (home) and 1.12 (away). Combining these xG values yields expected goals of 1.31 for the home side and 1.52 for the visitors, totaling 2.83 expected goals. Using this value, a Poisson distribution gives roughly a 77% probability for Over 1.5, about 54% for Over 2.5 and about 31% for Over 3.5; additionally the league averages 3.14 goals per game, and Correcaminos had 100% of matches with over 2.5 goals in their last 5 fixtures, which reinforces the Over signal. For these reasons the best pick is Over on the 1.5 line, which provides the strongest numerically justified signal (77% probability).

Correcaminos UAT have been trailing at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), with an average of 0.4 goals scored by half-time and 1.4 conceded. Their average xG is 1.33 versus 1.67 xG against; they generate on average 10 shots per game of which 3 are on target, but they have a conversion rate of 0.0, indicating poor finishing efficiency. Tepatitlán have a 40% win rate in their last 5 matches and score on average 1.2 goals per game; they were trailing at half-time in only 20% of cases and concede on average 0.4 goals before the break, so they are more stable at half-time than the hosts. The home side did not win any of these 5 matches (0% wins), and they concede on average 1 goal in the second half according to available data, which reduces the likelihood of a turnaround. Therefore the strongest signal is the away team leading at the break and winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/2) — I assign this scenario a 50% probability, with lower chances for draws or a home upset.