Çorum Belediyespor vs Sivasspor: match statistics

Çorum Belediyespor are favorites due to a significant home advantage: 65% home win rate, averaging 1.76 goals scored and just 0.71 conceded per home match, with a home goal difference of +18. Sivasspor’s away figures are weaker — on average 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, and a lower xG (1.21 vs 1.67 for the hosts), indicating lower quality of created chances. Çorum also generates more threat (4.82 shots on target and 60% possession at home versus 3.53 shots on target and 49% possession for the visitors) and is less likely to finish a match goalless (18% vs 29%). In the last 5 matches both teams scored 6 goals, but Sivasspor conceded 7 compared to Çorum’s 4; despite the visitors’ slightly better points return in the last 5 (1.8 pts vs 1.6 for the hosts), superiority in finishing, xG and defense favors a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes: both teams’ metrics indicate they will score. Season BTTS rates are 50% for Çorum and 53% for Sivasspor, and both clubs show 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches, providing a strong short-term signal. xG data support this: Çorum have xG_for 1.43 versus their opponent’s xG_against 1.26, while Sivasspor have xG_for 1.21 against Çorum’s xG_against 1.07 — both sides are generating above ~1.0 xG. Additionally, Çorum average 12.83 shots and 4.22 on target per game, Sivasspor 10.35 and 3.53; with conversion rates of 11% and 10% respectively these translate into genuine scoring opportunities (both teams scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches). Although clean sheets occur in 39% of Çorum’s games and 29% of Sivasspor’s, considering the league BTTS average of 49% and the clear rise to 60% in current form, I assign 62% probability to BTTS and 38% to No Goal.

Based on xG and defensive data I expect a total of 2.48 goals: home ~1.34 (xG_for 1.43 vs away defense xG_against 1.26), away ~1.14 (xG_for 1.21 vs home defense xG_against 1.07). A Poisson model with mu=2.48 gives roughly a 71% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~45% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and ~24% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal metrics confirm scoring propensity: Çorum have 67% of matches over 1.5 goals, Sivasspor 65%, and both teams have scored in 50% and 53% of their matches respectively. In the last 5 matches Çorum have xG_for 1.53, scored 6 and conceded 4; Sivasspor have xG_for 1.27, scored 6 and conceded 7, which strengthens the signal for at least 2 goals. Therefore the strongest pick is Over 1.5 (side: Over) with the largest probabilistic edge versus the 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

A half-time draw occurs frequently — the home side had a draw at the break in 7 matches (39%), and the visitors in 9 matches (56%), indicating a significant chance of an X at 45 minutes. The home team scores 0.72 goals on average before half-time and concedes 0.61, while the away team scores 0.44 and concedes 0.25; this yields an average of 1.33 goals at the break involving the home side versus 0.69 for the visitors. After the break the home side is stronger — they collected 28 points after half-time and average 1.56 points per match post-break, winning the second half in 39% of cases, whereas the visitors have 14 points and average 0.88 points per match after the break with only 19% second-half wins. Additionally, the home team scores on average 0.72 goals after the break while the visitors concede 0.94 goals in second halves, which increases the likelihood that an HT draw will turn into a home victory; overall the home side have won 39% of their matches this season compared to 35% for the away side. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is X/1 (draw at HT, home win FT), so I assign the highest probability to that scenario, while X/X and 1/1 are realistic alternatives.