Cosenza vs Cavese: match statistics

Cosenza have lost all 3 of their matches so far, scoring 2 goals and conceding 9, while suffering as many as 4 defeats in their last five games. Cavese have a more stable season record: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat, although their last five matches produced just 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.69 xG and register 6 shots on target per match, but concede an average of 2 goals from 1.87 xG allowed to opponents. Away from home, the visitors score just 0.5 goals per game and are yet to win, although they have drawn 50% of such fixtures and allow opponents a lower 1.43 xG. Cavese's poor finishing, converting only 3% of their attempts from 17 shots per match, limits their advantage and increases the likelihood of a share of the points.

Cavese averaged just 0.5 goals per match and failed to score in 50% of their games this season, which is the main argument against BTTS. In their last five matches, the visitors improved their average to 1.0 goal, but Cosenza have also shown limited attacking efficiency, scoring only 0.8 goals over the same period. The hosts have conceded 2.0 goals per match recently, with an xG against them of 1.48, so a Cavese goal remains a realistic scenario. Although neither team kept a clean sheet in the seasonal data, the visitors’ low scoring output and Cosenza’s BTTS rate of just 40% in their last five appearances slightly strengthen the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team will fail to score. Therefore, BTTS - No is more likely, although the edge over the Goal/Goal scenario is moderate.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have so far played matches with at least 2 goals in 100% of games under these conditions. Cosenza have conceded an average of 2.0 goals over their last 5 matches, while Cavese have conceded 1.6, which significantly increases the chances of both attacks creating scoring opportunities. The visitors have recently been generating chances worth 1.53 xG per match, almost the same as the 1.48 xG Cosenza allow at home. The hosts average 7.0 shots on target per match compared with Cavese’s 3.5, and their opponents have failed to keep a clean sheet, making the two-goal threshold look clearly safer than higher lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Cavese win at the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT pick X/2. In their last five matches, Cosenza were level at the break in 60% of games, while both teams averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half, clearly supporting a cautious start. However, Cosenza are in poor form, having lost four of their last five matches, scoring an average of 0.8 goals and conceding 2.0 per game, whereas Cavese average 1.0 point per match compared with the hosts’ 0.6. After the break, the hosts concede an average of 1.4 goals while scoring only 0.6, whereas Cavese score 0.8 goals in the second half and have won the second half in 60% of their recent fixtures. Cosenza’s seasonal home results are very strong, but they are based on a single match; therefore, current form and Cavese’s advantage in the closing stages of matches carry greater weight.