Cosenza vs Scafatese: match statistics

Cosenza remain winless after four matches this season, having scored just 2 goals and suffered 4 defeats in their last five games. At home, the hosts average only 0.5 goals per match and have failed to score in 50% of their appearances, despite an average xG of 1.50, which highlights a clear finishing problem. Scafatese are more consistent: they have lost just once in their last five matches, scored 8 goals, and have not been held scoreless in any away game. The visitors create slightly more shooting opportunities on the road, averaging 12.33 shots compared with Cosenza’s 11, while their conversion rate stands at 19%, versus just 5% for the hosts. Scafatese’s defence does concede an average of 2 goals away from home and has yet to keep a clean sheet, but Cosenza’s poor finishing and the visitors’ stronger attacking trend point towards a narrow away victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Cosenza’s very poor scoring efficiency: the hosts have not scored a goal in the competition yet, and have averaged just 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches. Their percentage of games without scoring stands at 100%, while Scafatese have scored in every match and average 2.33 goals per game. However, the visitors are not defensively solid, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five appearances, giving Cosenza some chance of finally finding the net. Despite the hosts’ xG of 1.27 over their last five matches, their actual output of just 2 goals during this period clearly reduces the credibility of a scoring scenario for them. BTTS - No is therefore more likely, mainly due to the risk that Cosenza will once again fail to convert their chances.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in all of their matches so far. Cosenza concede an average of 2.0 goals per game, while their opponents create chances worth an average of 2.19 xG, clearly favoring Scafatese’s attacking potential. The visitors score an average of 2.33 goals, register 5.0 shots on target per match, and have scored 8 goals in their last five outings. However, Cosenza are very weak in attack, averaging just 0.4 goals in their last five matches, so the chances of Over 2.5 remain close to even, despite both teams having recorded Over 2.5 in 60% of their matches in this series. The projected total of 2.60 goals is driven primarily by the visitors’ attacking advantage over the hosts’ leaky defense, giving a clear edge to the Over 1.5 line.

The strongest scenario is Scafatese leading at the break and maintaining their winning position, as the visitors were ahead at half-time in 67% of their matches so far, while Cosenza were trailing at half-time in 100% of cases. Cosenza have yet to score before the break, averaging 0.0 goals scored and conceding 1.0, whereas Scafatese have averaged 0.67 goals scored and conceded only 0.33 during this phase. The difference in attacking quality is also evident across the full match: the visitors average 2.33 goals from 5 shots on target, while the hosts have scored 0.0 goals and managed only 2 shots on target. In their last five matches, Cosenza lost 80% of their games, scoring just 0.4 goals and conceding 2.0, while Scafatese suffered defeat in only 20% of cases. The visitors are also particularly dangerous after the break, averaging 1.67 goals, which increases the likelihood of defending or extending the lead established before half-time.