CR Belouizdad vs MC Oran: match statistics

I predict a home win for CR Belouizdad. At home CR Belouizdad averages 1.92 goals scored and has xG 1.82 with 0.92 goals conceded per game, while MC Oran away posts 1.00 goals, xG 1.20 and concedes 1.29 goals. The hosts generate clearly better chances: 6.62 shots on target per game and a 14% conversion rate versus the visitors' 4.07 shots on target and 11% conversion, as well as higher possession (58% vs 48%). CR Belouizdad has a superior home goal difference (+13) and keeps clean sheets more often (31% vs 21%), whereas MC Oran has more wins this season (14 vs 12) and a better recent run over the last 5 matches (4 wins, 2.4 points per game vs 2 wins and 1.4 points per game for CR Belouizdad). Considering the quality of created chances and the hosts' more stable defense, I expect CR Belouizdad to take advantage of home field, although the visitors’ form makes a draw or an MC Oran win possible.

CR Belouizdad has scored 40 and conceded 21 this season, averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per match, with home clean sheets in 43% of games — a strong signal against BTTS. MC Oran has 33 scored and 26 conceded (1.0 and 1.29 on average) and fails to score in 43% of matches, further reducing the probability of both teams scoring. In chance-creation terms CR Belouizdad posts xG_for 1.54 and averages 5.5 shots on target, while MC Oran concedes xG_against 1.75, so the hosts have a higher chance to score, but Oran rarely is efficient enough to reply. The last 5 matches show mixed signals — CR Belouizdad has 60% BTTS in the last 5 and concedes 1.2 on average in that period, while Oran has 40% BTTS and scores 1.0 on average — however the season-long 43% home clean sheets and Oran’s 43% of matches without a goal favor the scenario that both teams will not score. In light of these figures I assess BTTS=no as more likely (62%) versus 38% for BTTS=yes.

Total expected xG is approximately 2.76 (home 1.65 vs away 1.11), which under a Poisson distribution implies roughly a 76% chance of Over 1.5 goals in the match. Seasonal stats support this signal: Over 1.5 occurred in 64% of CR Belouizdad’s matches and 71% of MC Oran’s, while Over 0.5 appears in 86% and 93% for these teams. In the last 5 matches both sides recorded Over 2.5 in 60% of games, and the combined recent xG (1.33 + 1.45 ≈ 2.78) increases the probability of at least two goals. CR Belouizdad scores on average 1.36 and concedes 0.57 per match with 5.5 shots on target versus MC Oran’s 4.07, the latter averaging 1.0 scored and 1.29 conceded, suggesting a home advantage in chance creation. Based on this, the strongest signal is an Over on the 1.5 line — the 2.5 line is more balanced (about a 52% chance of Over), while Over 3.5 remains less likely.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time followed by a home win: CR Belouizdad drew at HT in 71% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 71%) and went on to win the second half in 64% of matches (wins_2hg_percentage_home = 64%). The home side scores an average of 1.21 goals after the break and concedes only 0.29 (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.21, conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.29), while the away team averages just 0.57 goals in the second half (scored_2hg_avg_away = 0.57), which facilitates CR Belouizdad overturning a draw. Additionally, CR Belouizdad generates 1.54 xG per match (xg_for_avg_home = 1.54) with 5.5 shots on target versus the opponents’ 4.07 (shotsOnTargetAVG_home = 5.5 vs shotsOnTargetAVG_away = 4.07), and the home defense concedes only 0.57 goals per match on average (seasonConcededAVG_home = 0.57), reducing the visitors’ chances of holding the result. The away side leads at the break in only 21% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 21%) and scores on average 1.0 goal per match (seasonScoredAVG_away = 1.0), so the scenario where a half-time draw turns into a home win is most likely — I assign X/1 48%. I assign lower probability to scenarios with the home side already leading at half-time (1/1 = 6%) or an away win (collectively around 10%), which corresponds with the observation that the home team leads at HT in only 7% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 7%).