CR Khemis Zemamra vs Hassania Agadir: match statistics

Hassania Agadir have the stronger case for a win: after two matches this season, they sit 9th with 1 win and 4 goals scored, while CR Khemis Zemamra are 14th with 2 defeats and 1 goal scored. In their last five matches, the visitors have scored 6 goals compared with the hosts’ 3, although both teams have lost twice over that period. Hassania’s advantage is that they won their only away match so far, scoring 3 goals but also conceding 2. Caution is warranted, as the visitors’ away xG was 1.13 against their opponents’ 1.96 xG, suggesting their finishing may be difficult to sustain. CR Khemis Zemamra’s home performances do not yet provide enough evidence to assess any home advantage, so an away win is the most likely outcome, though a draw remains a realistic possibility.

The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by the fact that BTTS landed in 60% of the hosts’ last 5 matches and 80% of the visitors’ last 5, compared with 56% across the league. Hassania conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match during this period, giving Khemis Zemamra a chance to score despite their modest average of 0.6 goals scored. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while the visitors scored 1.2, making a Hassania goal likely as well. Their attacking potential is also reflected in average xG figures of 1.43 for Khemis Zemamra and 1.20 for Hassania over their last 5 matches. The hosts’ lower scoring efficiency limits confidence in the prediction, but the BTTS frequency and the number of goals conceded by the visitors tip the assessment towards Yes.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: the forecast is 2.60 goals, while the hosts’ last 5 matches averaged 1.6 goals, compared with 2.8 in the visitors’ matches. Over this period, only 20% of CR Khemis Zemamra’s matches and 40% of Hassania Agadir’s matches went over 2.5 goals, limiting the case for expecting at least 4 goals. Average attacking xG over the last 5 matches stands at 1.43 for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors, so despite chances for both teams, the figures do not point to an exceptionally high-scoring game. The hosts have scored only 0.6 goals per match recently, while the visitors have conceded 1.6, making the Under 3.5 line a safer option than Under 2.5 goals.

The teams were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches each, making a closely contested opening the most likely scenario. The hosts have not won any of their last 5 matches, drawing 3 of them; the visitors recorded 2 draws and just 1 win over the same period. Hassania have scored more goals recently, averaging 1.2 compared with the hosts’ 0.6, but have also conceded more: 1.6 versus 1.0. The hosts’ chances of keeping the game level are supported by an xG of 1.38 compared with the visitors’ 1.13, although these figures do not point to a clear advantage for either side. The combination of frequent half-time draws and few wins makes a draw at both half-time and full-time the strongest single scenario.