Cracovia Kraków II vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Form and recent results clearly favor Chełmianka: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 2.6 points per match in this period, while Cracovia II have won only 1 of their last 5 and have 0.6 PPG. In attack Chełmianka scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per match) versus Cracovia II’s 6 (1.2 per match); seasonally the visitors average 1.6 goals away compared to 1.2 for the hosts, and shot conversion is 17% for Chełmianka vs 11% for Cracovia. The defensive gap is even more significant: Cracovia II conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches and 1.73 goals per home match, while Chełmianka conceded 3 in their last five and only 1.00 goal per away match on the season; additionally the visitors have 47% clean sheets on the road versus 20% for the hosts. xG shows both teams create similar chances (Cracovia xG 1.46 at home vs Chełmianka xG 1.4 away), but the visitors’ markedly better defense and higher efficiency (xG against 1.04 vs 1.51 for the hosts) increase the probability of an away win. Based on this I forecast a win for the visitors; estimated probabilities are ~65% Chełmianka win, 20% draw and 15% Cracovia II win.

Statistical analysis favors a Both Teams To Score scenario: Cracovia II has a season BTTS of 63% versus Chełmianka’s 47%, with the league average at 57% matches seeing both teams score. Cracovia II averages 2.13 goals per game (xG 2.18) and records 8.5 shots on target, while Chełmianka concedes 1.00 goal per game season-to-date — conditions that support at least one home goal. The visitors are in form, scoring 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 per game); despite an aggregate xG of only 0.39 across those five games, this indicates exceptional finishing, so Chełmianka should find a way to score. Countering this is Chełmianka’s high percentage of clean sheets (47% vs 38% for the home side), but the hosts almost always deliver offensively (only 6% of matches without a goal) and their last 5 matches produced BTTS in 80% (visitors 40%), which strongly signals a Yes. Consequently I recommend BTTS = Yes with an estimated probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

Cracovia II scores on average 2.13 goals per match with xG 2.18, while Chełmianka scores 1.60 goals with xG 1.40, yielding predicted xG of 1.61 for the home side and 1.21 for the away side (total 2.82). Season shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 69% for the home team and 80% for the away team, and over 0.5 occurs in 94% and 87% of matches respectively, which strongly supports at least two goals. The 2.5 line is more balanced (seasonally 50% for the home side and 40% for the away side, while the league has 57% over2.5), therefore I assign over2.5 a 58% probability — the total xG 2.82 slightly exceeds 2.5 but does not provide as strong a signal as 1.5. Over 3.5 is rare (seasonal 25%/27%) and with xG 2.82 under 3.5 is more likely (73%). The best pick according to the data is over 1.5 (82%) — the high xG of both teams, goals per game 2.13 vs 1.60 and over1.5 shares 69% vs 80% provide the strongest statistical argument.

Cracovia II has a clear advantage in first halves: they led at the break in 64% of matches (9 instances) and score an average of 1.14 first-half goals versus Chełmianka's 0.58, while the hosts concede only 0.14 before halftime. Across the season Cracovia II win 75% of matches and average 2.13 goals per game compared to the visitors' 1.6; additionally their xG is 2.18 versus 1.4 and they register 8.5 shots on target versus Chełmianka’s 4.17, indicating a pronounced attacking edge. Minute-by-minute goal analysis confirms the hosts’ pressure before the break: Cracovia II scored 5 goals in minutes 16–30 and 5 goals in 31–45, whereas Chełmianka has 1 and 0 respectively and conceded 4 goals between 31–45, which increases the likelihood of the hosts leading at the break. Nevertheless the visitors are in very good form over the last 5 matches (80% wins in the last 5), so I also assign a significant probability to scenarios with a draw at halftime and turnarounds in the second half — a total of 29% is attributed to results starting from a draw (x/1, x/x, x/2). The combination of these indicators — 64% halftime leads, xG 2.18 vs 1.4 and 75% home wins — makes the strongest signal that the hosts will remain in front through the end (HT/FT = 1/1).