Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin: match statistics

Cracovia sits 8th in the table and Pogoń 13th, with both teams averaging an identical 1.4 points per game over the last 5 matches, indicating comparable point form. In their last 5 fixtures Cracovia scored 5 and conceded 4 (1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game), recording 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses — i.e. 80% draws. Pogoń in the same period scored 7 and conceded 5 (1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game), with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, showing greater volatility and a slightly stronger attack. Considering Cracovia’s unbeaten run in the last five and the higher league position (8 vs 13), the most likely outcome is a draw, with a moderate probability of a narrow home win or a Pogoń victory.

I assess BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome for Cracovia Kraków – Pogoń Szczecin. The league shows 56% BTTS matches and an average of 2.22 goals per game, which gives primary weight to a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 fixtures BTTS occurred in 40% of games for both sides, while Cracovia averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded and Pogoń 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, indicating both teams consistently create goals. Additionally, last-5 xG is 1.29 for Cracovia and 1.43 for Pogoń with xG against 1.40 and 1.72 respectively, suggesting both teams generate and allow goal-scoring opportunities. Considering the league 56% rate alongside the cited xG and average goals (5 and 7 scored vs 4 and 5 conceded in the last 5), I assign BTTS "yes" a 62% probability versus 38% for "no."

I project 1.50 goals for Cracovia and 1.42 for Pogoń, totaling 2.92 expected goals in the match. The estimate is based on xG: Cracovia has 1.29 xG in the last 5 matches, while Pogoń concedes on average 1.72 xG — the mean of these values yields 1.50 xG for the home side. Similarly, Pogoń records 1.43 xG in their last 5 matches, and Cracovia allows opponents 1.40 xG, leading to a projected 1.42 xG for the visitors. A Poisson model with λ=2.92 translates to roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 56% for Over 2.5 and 34% for Over 3.5; meanwhile only 20% of Cracovia’s and 40% of Pogoń’s last 5 matches exceeded 2.5 goals, so Over 2.5 has moderate support. Given the expected total of 2.92 and the highest probability at 79%, I recommend an Over 1.5 goals bet as the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is a half-time draw and a Pogoń victory at full-time (X/2). Cracovia was level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, and both teams average 0.6 goals each at half-time in those five fixtures, which supports a low-scoring draw at the break. In the second half the advantage lies with the visitors: Pogoń won 40% of their last five matches and scored at least one goal after the break in 100% of those five games, whereas Cracovia scored after the break in only 20% of cases. Additionally, Cracovia’s xG is 1.26 with xG against 2.47, while Pogoń have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five matches, giving the visitors the edge in the final result. Considering also that 89% of league matches have at least 0.5 goals in the second half, the X/2 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario appears to be the strongest signal from the available data.