Cracovia Kraków vs Radomiak Radom: match statistics

I predict a draw (X) — the most likely outcome given Cracovia records as many as 47% draws at home, while Radomiak draws 40% of away matches. Cracovia has a defensive edge at home: they concede on average 1.07 goals per home game with xG against 1.26, whereas Radomiak concedes 1.93 goals away with xG against 1.75, which gives the hosts better control of defensive situations. In terms of chance creation both teams are similar — Cracovia posts xG 1.55 at home and averages 3.87 shots on target per game, while Radomiak away has xG 1.48 and 3.73 shots on target, suggesting a small quality advantage in chances for the hosts. However, the last five matches form indicates risk for Cracovia: the hosts have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (4 scored, 10 conceded, 0.6 points per game), while Radomiak’s last 5 read 3-1-1 (7 scored, 4 conceded, 2.0 points per game), which evens the chances of an away upset. Considering the high draw rates (47% vs 40%) and the marginal home xG advantage (1.55 vs 1.48), a draw is the most probable outcome, with a smaller but meaningful chance of a Cracovia or Radomiak win.

Cracovia has a seasonal BTTS rate of 69% and averages 2.0 goals scored per home match, while Radomiak posts BTTS 73% and averages 1.13 goals scored away; both are above the league BTTS average of 57%. In the last 5 matches both teams show BTTS 60%: Cracovia scored 4 and conceded 10 goals (avg 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per match), while Radomiak scored 7 and conceded 4 (avg 1.4 and 0.8), indicating Radomiak consistently finds the net and Cracovia has recently been prone to conceding. xG corroborates an open game: Cracovia has attacking xG 1.67 and xG against 1.34, whereas Radomiak has attacking xG 1.48 and xG against 1.75 — both sides generate over 1.4 xG and allow above 1.3 xG. Cracovia averages 15.44 shots with 4.81 on target, Radomiak 13.13 with 3.73 on target; shot conversion rate is 13% for Cracovia versus 9% for Radomiak, so goal-scoring opportunities are created at both ends. Considering seasonal BTTS 69%/73%, low clean sheet expected rates of 19% and 13%, recent form and xG, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% (No 28%).

The xG- and stats-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Cracovia (home xG 1.67 and xG against guests 1.75, average (1.67+1.75)/2 = 1.71) and 1.41 for Radomiak (away xG 1.48 and xG against hosts 1.34, average = 1.41), totaling 3.12 goals. Seasonal percentages confirm a tendency for goals: Over 1.5 occurred for Cracovia in 88% of matches and for Radomiak in 80% (avg. 84%), Over 2.5 in 56% and 60% (≈58%), and Over 3.5 in 38% and 47% (≈43%). Additionally both teams have high BTTS rates: 69% (Cracovia) and 73% (Radomiak). Cracovia scores on average 2.0 goals at home and has a higher shot conversion rate 13% versus Radomiak’s 9%, increasing the likelihood of home goals. Considering the combined expected 3.12 goals, high BTTS and historical 84% support for Over 1.5, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~58%) but is weaker than the 1.5 line, therefore I recommend playing the over on 1.5 as the best option.

Cracovia has a clear seasonal advantage: they average 2.00 goals per game versus Radomiak’s 1.13 and collect 1.94 points per game compared to 0.80 for Radomiak, with home win percentage 56% versus 13% for the away side. At half-time the hosts lead in 31% of matches and score 0.81 goals on average in the first half, while Radomiak scores 0.33 goals to the break and led at half-time in only 13% of their games, which strongly favors HT = 1. Cracovia posts higher xG (1.67 vs 1.48), has more shots on target (4.81 vs 3.73) and better finishing rate (13% vs 9%), and Radomiak concedes 1.93 goals per game on average — these figures indicate the hosts not only create more chances but also convert them more efficiently. Additionally, Cracovia is strong in second halves (9 goals in minutes 46–60 at home and 44% second-half wins vs 20% for Radomiak), so if they hold a lead at the break they have a high probability of maintaining it; therefore the most reliable Half-Time/Full-Time scenario is 1/1.