Crawley Town vs Cheltenham Town: match statistics

Cheltenham Town sit 9th, while Crawley Town are only 21st, and the hosts’ last five matches have produced 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, compared with the home side’s 1-1-3 record. Crawley have lost both of their home games, failed to score in either, and managed an average of just 2.5 shots on target per match. The visitors create significantly more danger away from home, averaging 11.5 shots, 5.5 shots on target and 1.5 goals, while their xG stands at 1.40 compared with 1.04 for the hosts. Crawley’s defence allows opponents chances worth 2.33 xG per home game, which should favour a clinical Cheltenham side. The visitors do concede an average of 2 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, so a draw remains a realistic possibility; however, their attacking edge and more consistent form point to an away win.

Both teams have recorded BTTS at 100% in the current competition, have not kept a single clean sheet, and have failed to score in none of their matches. Crawley average 2.33 goals at home but concede 1.67, while Cheltenham score 1.50 goals away and allow opponents 2.00 goals. In their last five matches, the hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals and the visitors 1.8, with Cheltenham recording BTTS in 100% of those games compared with Crawley’s 60%. The attacking potential of both sides is supported by their average xG figures: 1.48 for Crawley and 1.23 for Cheltenham over their last five appearances, while both defences allowed opponents an xG of 1.50 and 1.57 respectively. BTTS - Yes is clearly more likely than the league average of 56%, although Crawley’s modest average of one goal scored across their last five matches remains a limiting factor.

In their league matches to date, both teams have recorded at least 2 total goals in 100% of games, with each side scoring and conceding in every appearance. Cheltenham average 2.0 goals scored over their last five matches and allow opponents 1.8 goals, while Crawley have conceded 1.6 goals per game during the same period. The xG profile also supports goals for the visitors: their average xG is 1.40, while Crawley's defence allows opponents 1.77 xG. The hosts create an average of 1.12 xG, but Cheltenham have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede an average of 2.0 goals in away matches. The projected total of 2.80 goals gives the strongest edge to Over 1.5, as two goals require significantly less than the more demanding 2.5 line being landed.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Cheltenham win, as the hosts have scored only 0.4 goals before the break in their last five matches and were trailing at half-time in 40% of those games. Over the same period, Cheltenham have posted better first-half figures: they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, and led at the break in 40% of matches, compared with 20% for Crawley. After the interval, the visitors have averaged 1.2 goals in their last five appearances, with goals scored in the second half in 100% of those matches. Cheltenham’s advantage is further strengthened by the quality of the chances created: their average xG is 1.40, while Crawley allow opponents 1.77 xG per match. Although the hosts remain unbeaten at home during this phase of the season, their recent form yields just 0.8 points per game, compared with 1.6 for Cheltenham, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround in the visitors’ favour after half-time.