CRB vs Novorizontino: match statistics

CRB are clearly the stronger side in terms of current form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, recording four wins and a draw, while scoring 8 goals and conceding just 3. Novorizontino, by contrast, have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 goals and allowing 6 during that period. At home, the hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 21.1 shots, 6.8 shots on target and an xG of 2.13, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.40. However, Novorizontino remain difficult to break down on the road, conceding just 0.82 goals per match on average and keeping a clean sheet in 45% of their games, so the significant draw risk must be factored in. Nevertheless, CRB’s advantage in current form and the quality of chances created points to a narrow home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, mainly due to Novorizontino’s solid defence: the team concedes just 0.82 goals per match on average and keeps a clean sheet in 45% of games. BTTS has occurred in only 36% of Novorizontino’s matches, compared with a league average of 48%, while in 36% of their games the team failed to score altogether. CRB have strong creative numbers at home, with an average xG of 1.78 and 5.3 shots on target, but both teams scored in only 40% of Novorizontino’s last 5 matches. The hosts have also been very defensively sound recently, conceding just 0.6 goals per match across their previous five outings, which limits the chances of the visitors, who averaged 1.0 goals scored during that period. Therefore, a scenario in which at least one team fails to score is slightly more likely than both sides finding the net.

Novorizontino concede an average of just 0.82 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 45% of their games, which significantly limits CRB’s scoring potential. However, the hosts are in excellent form: they have scored 8 goals and conceded only 3 in their last 5 matches, making at least two goals in the game a likely scenario. Historically, both teams rarely take part in very open matches: fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 80% of CRB’s matches and 73% of Novorizontino’s. This is further supported by the fact that CRB have not conceded more than 2 goals in any match, while Novorizontino have exceeded that defensive threshold in only 9% of games. The projected total of 2.30 goals points to a scoreline such as 1:1, 2:0 or 2:1, making Under 3.5 the market with the strongest statistical support.

CRB are in clearly superior form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals scored, conceded just 0.6, and won four games, while Novorizontino have lost four of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. The hosts also have an edge in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.78 compared with their opponents’ 1.40, while their opponent allows an average xG of 1.44. The signal for CRB to lead at the break is further strengthened by their current run, during which the hosts were ahead at half-time in 80% of matches, compared with just 20% for Novorizontino. Although CRB have drawn at half-time in as many as 80% of their matches over the full season, their superior form, home advantage, and 80% win rate in their last five matches primarily support a scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and go on to win: 1/1.