CRB vs Sport Recife: match statistics

CRB have a clear attacking edge at home: they average 1.77 goals and create 2.18 xG per match, while Sport Recife score just 0.92 goals away from home with 1.25 xG. The hosts also register significantly more shots, averaging 21.69 compared with 12.77, and produce 6.92 shots on target per match versus their opponents’ 3.15. The form across the last five matches also favours CRB, who have won 3 times and collected an average of 1.8 points per match, while Sport Recife have suffered 3 defeats and averaged 1.2 points. The visitors are, however, more solid defensively away from home, conceding an average of 0.92 goals, so a closely fought match cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, CRB’s superiority in the quality of chances created and their more effective performances at home point towards a home win.

CRB have landed BTTS - Yes in 69% of their matches this season, well above the league average of 48%, while Sport Recife stands at 54%. In their last five matches, the rate of both teams scoring has risen to 60% for CRB and as high as 80% for Sport, with both sides recording an identical tally of 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. The hosts average 1.69 goals and 5.23 shots on target per match at home, while the visitors’ defense allows an average of 1.60 xG. Sport Recife scores only 0.92 goals per away match over the season, but their last five outings have produced an average of 1.6 goals and 1.5 xG, strengthening the likelihood of them scoring against a CRB side conceding an average of 1.42 xG. The strongest signal remains their current, openly attacking form on both sides, making a goal for each team the more likely scenario.

CRB score an average of 1.69 goals and record 5.23 shots on target per match at home, while Sport Recife concede an average of 0.92 goals away from home. Both teams are also in better attacking form: each has averaged 1.6 goals over their last five matches, with their games producing an average of three goals. During this period, at least three goals were scored in 80% of CRB’s recent matches and in 100% of Sport Recife’s games, although full-season data is considerably more conservative, with a 46% rate for this line on both sides. The strongest pick therefore remains Over 1.5 goals, as CRB have scored at least once in 100% of their matches, while 92% of their games and 54% of Sport Recife’s matches have featured more than two goals in total.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CRB victory in the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 54% of their games, compared with 46% for Sport Recife. The first halves of both teams are usually cautious: CRB average 0.62 goals in them, while the visitors average only 0.31, and both teams keep a clean sheet before the break in 62% of matches. After the interval, CRB’s advantage increases, as they score an average of 1.08 goals compared with Sport Recife’s 0.62, while at least one goal is scored after half-time in 92% of the hosts’ matches. CRB also have a higher average attacking xG, 1.58 versus their opponents’ 1.25, register more shots on target (5.23 compared with 3.15), and score 1.69 goals per home match, whereas Sport Recife average only 0.92 away from home. The hosts’ superior conversion rate, 11% versus 7%, supports the scenario in which a tight first half turns into a CRB victory in the second half: X/1.