Cremonese vs Modena: match statistics

Modena opened the season with a 2:1 victory and has won 100% of its away matches so far, while Cremonese lost its only league fixture 0:1. In their away appearance, the visitors created chances worth an average of 1.31 xG, registered 13 shots and 4 shots on target per match, indicating clear attacking intent. Cremonese nevertheless has the better overall record across its last five matches: 3 wins and 5 goals scored, compared with Modena’s single victory and 4 defeats. The visitors’ defence leaves room for improvement, allowing opponents 1.44 xG and conceding an average of one goal away from home. Despite this, Modena’s current season record, greater consistency in chance creation and effectiveness on the road give it a slight edge.

Recent form provides the stronger signal: BTTS - Yes occurred in only 20% of Cremonese’s last five matches and in 40% of Modena’s games, clearly below the league average of 60%. During this period, Modena scored just 0.8 goals per match and recorded an average xG of 1.00, so their chances of breaking down the hosts’ defence are not high. Cremonese also averaged 1.0 goal scored with an xG of 1.00, which points more towards a controlled outcome than an open exchange of goals. Both teams have recently conceded an average of 1.0 and 1.4 goals respectively, but the low BTTS frequency and Modena’s poor attacking efficiency support a scenario in which at least one side fails to score — BTTS - No.

The latest form of both teams points to moderate scoring potential: Cremonese scored and conceded 1.0 goal per game across their last five matches, while Modena scored 0.8 and conceded 1.4. The average xG from the last five matches is 1.0 for both teams, which does not suggest an open, high-scoring game with a large number of clear-cut chances. Cremonese had Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Modena and 50% across the league. Modena allowed opponents an xG of 1.58, so the hosts should create opportunities, but Cremonese’s own xG of 1.0 limits the potential for a high-scoring outcome. The projected total of 2.13 goals gives a clear betting edge to Under 3.5 goals, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

Cremonese have shown significantly better form over their last five matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 3 wins, while Modena have recorded just 1 victory and average 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of these matches, compared with just 20% for Modena; furthermore, the visitors failed to score before half-time in 80% of their last five appearances. Cremonese average 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in the first half, while Modena average 0.4 and 0.6 respectively, reinforcing the scenario of the hosts taking the initiative in the early stages. After the interval, the hosts kept a clean sheet in 80% of their recent matches, so if they are leading at half-time, the most likely outcome is that they will preserve their advantage through to full-time.