Crewe Alexandra vs Northampton Town: match statistics

Crewe Alexandra go into this match in clearly better form: they have picked up 8 points from their last five games, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat. Northampton Town, meanwhile, have failed to win any of their last five, suffering 4 defeats and collecting only 1 point. The hosts have scored 4 goals in their last five matches, compared with just 2 for the visitors, while Northampton’s defence has conceded as many as 8 goals, compared with 4 conceded by Crewe. Crewe’s higher position in the table is another argument in their favour, with the team sitting 6th, while Northampton are 11th. The hosts can also draw confidence from their successful start to the season, which ended in a 1:0 victory. Therefore, a Crewe win is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Northampton have scored just 0.4 goals per game across their last five matches and BTTS - Yes has landed in only 20% of cases. Crewe are not a particularly prolific side either, averaging 0.8 goals in their last five appearances, while matches featuring goals from both teams accounted for 40%. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches so far, with an average conceded xG of just 0.54, which significantly limits the prospects of the visitors’ weak attacking unit. Northampton have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last five matches, but their own xG of 1.00 does not offset their low scoring efficiency. Additionally, the league BTTS rate stands at just 33%, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

Crewe’s last five matches produced an average of 1.6 total goals, with the team scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 goals per game. Over the same period, Northampton scored just 0.4 goals per match, while their defence conceded 1.6, giving the hosts moderate potential of around 1.2 goals. Only 20% of Crewe’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, compared with 40% for Northampton, while the league average stands at 50%. Crewe’s xG from their last five matches was 1.18, while Northampton created chances worth 1.00 xG, so the projected total of 1.90 goals does not point to an open, high-scoring game. The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as losing this line requires at least four goals—something for which the teams’ current attacking data provides limited support.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Crewe win, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Northampton were trailing at that stage in as many as 60% of theirs. Crewe averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, limiting the likelihood of taking an early lead, whereas their opponents conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the first halves. After the break, the hosts scored an average of 0.6 goals, while Northampton failed to score a single second-half goal in each of their last five matches. Overall form also clearly favours Crewe: the team averaged 1.6 points per match and recorded a 40% win rate over this period, compared with Northampton's 0.2 points per match, 0% win rate and 80% loss rate. The low average of 1.6 goals in Crewe's matches and 2.0 in the visitors' games suggests a cautious opening, with the hosts' advantage likely to emerge primarily after half-time.