Criciúma vs Botafogo SP: match statistics
Criciúma vs Botafogo SP: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Criciúma played Botafogo SP in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 10 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Criciúma: 1-1-1, 1.33 points/match. Botafogo SP: 2-0-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Criciúma scores 0.67 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Botafogo SP scores 2.33 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Criciúma 33%, Botafogo SP 67%. Over 2.5: Criciúma 0%, Botafogo SP 100%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Criciúma has higher xG: 1.63 vs 1.57. Criciúma: 16.7 shots per match, Botafogo SP: 14.7.
Match halves
Criciúma: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.33. Botafogo SP: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Criciúma: 0-15 (1 goals). Botafogo SP: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.17 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2). Botafogo SP, sitting 4th versus 11th-ranked Criciúma, holds the edge in offensive metrics: 7 goals in the season vs 2, and 9 goals in the last 5 matches with 3 wins, while Criciúma has 5 goals in the last 5. Criciúma dominates possession (71% vs 32%) and generates many attempts at home (avg. 32 shots and 7 on target) with a high xG of 3, but suffers from a very low conversion rate of 3%, translating to an average of 1.0 goal per match and a 100% draw rate at home (0% wins). Botafogo is markedly more efficient: away they average 13 shots (5 on target), 15% conversion, 2.0 goals per match with xG 1.41 and collect 1.8 points in the last 5 matches versus Criciúma’s 1.4. Considering the visitors’ rapid efficiency (15% conversion and 2.0 goals/away), superior goal metrics and more consistent form, I assess probabilities at 60% for Botafogo, 25% for a draw and 15% for Criciúma.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The advantage for BTTS signals comes from Botafogo SP having a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% versus Criciúma's 50%, and the league registering BTTS 60%, indicating frequent Goal/Goal outcomes. Both teams are offensively active: Criciúma averages 2.5 goals per match, Botafogo 2.0, with average xG of 1.66 (Criciúma) and 1.41 (Botafogo), and 15.5 and 13.0 shots on average respectively (28.5 combined). Additionally, both record 5.0 shots on target and conversion rates of 16% (Criciúma) vs 15% (Botafogo), which increases the likelihood of chances being converted. Limiting factors include 50% clean sheets for the home side and a weaker recent-5 form signal (BTTS 40% for both), so a No Goal risk exists; nevertheless the strongest single indicator (BTTS 100% for Botafogo) along with supporting xG and shot volume favors a Yes (BTTS - Yes) selection.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG values and the opponent’s defensive data, I estimate 1.48 expected goals for Criciúma (attacking xG 1.66 vs opponent’s xG conceded 1.29) and 1.22 for Botafogo SP (attacking xG 1.41 vs conceded xG 1.03), totaling approximately 2.70 expected goals. A Poisson model with this mean suggests roughly a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 51% for Over 2.5 goals and around 29% for Over 3.5 goals. Shot statistics confirm an offensive setup: Criciúma averages 15.5 shots with 16% conversion (≈2.48 goals from those shots), Botafogo averages 13.0 shots with 15% conversion (≈1.95 goals), and Botafogo has 100% BTTS this season (Criciúma 50%). In the last 5 matches the teams averaged 1.0 (Criciúma) and 1.8 (Botafogo) goals respectively, which further supports a minimum two-goal scenario. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈75% probability), while Over 2.5 is only slightly favored (≈51%), and Over 3.5 remains unlikely (≈29%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The weakest resistance and the strongest signal point to a lead at the break and a full-time win for Botafogo SP: the visitors average 3.0 points per match this season and have a 100% win rate, while Criciúma average 1.5 points per match with a 50% win rate. In their last five matches Botafogo led at half-time in 60% of games and scored an average of 1.2 goals before the break, whereas Criciúma managed only 0.4 goals at half-time across those five games. Although xG favors the home side 1.66 to 1.41, Botafogo have the superior results profile and their matches have finished with goals for both teams in 100% of cases, indicating the visitors’ capacity to score and decide the outcome. The season-long half-time lead rate for the hosts is 100% but is based on only two instances, so I place greater weight on the form over the last five matches. Therefore I tip HT/FT 2/2 with a 35% probability; alternatives are X/2 (20%) and 1/2 (10%), with the remaining outcomes receiving smaller shares of the distribution.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Criciúma | Botafogo SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 20% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.47 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Botafogo SP is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.33 pts / match - Criciúma · 2 pts / match - Botafogo SP
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Botafogo SP is 248% better for: goals scored per match.
0.67 goals / match - Criciúma · 2.33 goals / match - Botafogo SP
Criciúma is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Criciúma · 1 goals / match - Botafogo SP
Criciúma scores in 67% of matches (2 of 3 matches), while Botafogo SP keeps a clean sheet in 33% (1 of 3 matches).
Botafogo SP scores in 100% of matches (3 of 3 matches), while Criciúma keeps a clean sheet in 33% (1 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Criciúma
Over / Under - Botafogo SP
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Botafogo SP is 75% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Criciúma · 2.33 pts / match - Botafogo SP
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Criciúma - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Botafogo SP - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 goal | 67% | 67% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 67% |
| No goal | 67% | 67% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 67% | 33% |
| 3 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 67% |
| No goal | 0% | 33% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Criciúma
Botafogo SP
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Criciúma | Liga | Botafogo SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.33 | 2.17 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 60% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 0% | 43% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 27% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 60% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Botafogo SPSubstitutionOn: Marco Antônio de Freitas BatistussiOff: Pedro Henrique Souza do Nascimento
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Criciúma 2 - 0 - 0 Botafogo SP. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Criciúma vs Botafogo SP?
The Serie B match finished Criciúma 1:0 Botafogo SP. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciúma and Botafogo SP?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 2, Botafogo SP won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Criciúma vs Botafogo SP?
Criciúma score 0.67 goals per game on average and Botafogo SP 2.33. The Serie B average is 2.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Criciúma's matches and 67% of Botafogo SP's.
What form are Criciúma and Botafogo SP in?
Over the last 5 games Criciúma have a 1-1-1 record (1.33 points per game) and Botafogo SP 2-0-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Criciúma vs Botafogo SP?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.