Criciúma vs Fortaleza: match statistics

Criciúma are unbeaten at home, winning 64% of their matches, while Fortaleza win just 17% of their away games and lose 42%. The hosts concede only 0.36 goals per match on home soil and keep a clean sheet in 64% of their fixtures, whereas Fortaleza score just 0.50 goals away from home and fail to score in 50% of matches. Criciúma’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.67 compared with 1.24 for the visitors, while shots on target average 4.55 to 2.83 per match. The last five games also favor the hosts, who have conceded just 2 goals and recorded 3 wins, while Fortaleza have allowed 6 goals. The low-scoring profile of both teams increases the likelihood of a tight contest, but Criciúma’s defensive solidity at home points to a narrow victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Fortaleza’s poor attacking efficiency: the visitors score just 0.5 goals per match on average, have failed to score in 50% of their games, and have a shot conversion rate of only 4%. Criciúma keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while conceding just 2 goals across their last five fixtures—an average of 0.4 per game. The hosts have also failed to produce high-scoring results recently, scoring 4 goals in their last five matches, with BTTS at 0% during that period. The teams’ seasonal figures are also clearly below the league average of 48%, with Criciúma recording BTTS at 40% and Fortaleza at 33%. Although the hosts hold an attacking advantage, averaging 1.8 goals and 5.5 shots on target per match compared with Fortaleza’s 0.5 goals and 2.83 shots on target, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Criciúma have scored just 4 goals and conceded 2 in their last five matches, resulting in a very low overall goals profile despite their seasonal average of 1.8 goals scored at home. Fortaleza average only 0.5 goals, have scored more than once in just 50% of their matches, and recorded an average of 1.0 goal across their last five appearances. The 3.5 line has been covered in only 20% of Criciúma’s matches and 8% of Fortaleza’s, while the under has landed in 80% and 92% of cases, respectively. Even the hosts’ chance-quality potential of 1.73 xG compared with 1.62 xG conceded by their opponents does not offset the visitors’ weak attack and Criciúma’s currently tight defence. The projected total of 2.00 goals points to a clear preference for Under 3.5 goals.

Criciúma win 80% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Fortaleza win only 17% of their away games and average 0.5 goals scored. The hosts held a lead at the break in 5 of their 10 home matches, whereas Fortaleza went into half-time trailing in as many as 42% of their away fixtures. Criciúma’s superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.73 compared with 1.24 for their opponents, while they average 5.5 shots on target against Fortaleza’s 2.83. The last five matches suggest a more cautious start, as the teams were level at half-time in 40% and 60% of those games, respectively, but the hosts remain the most likely side to take the lead. The 1/1 scenario is also supported by the fact that Fortaleza fail to score before half-time in 83% of their away matches, while Criciúma keep a clean sheet before the break in 70% of their home games.