Crotone vs Audace Cerignola: match statistics
Crotone vs Audace Cerignola: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Crotone played Audace Cerignola in Serie C Group C (Italy). The match was played on 29 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Crotone: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Audace Cerignola: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Crotone scores 1.52 and concedes 0.97 goals per match. Audace Cerignola scores 1.33 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Crotone 42%, Audace Cerignola 48%. Over 2.5: Crotone 45%, Audace Cerignola 52%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Audace Cerignola has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.46. Crotone: 11.4 shots per match, Audace Cerignola: 12.8.
Match halves
Crotone: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.73. Audace Cerignola: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Crotone: 16-30 (12 goals). Audace Cerignola: 46-60 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group C: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Crotone have a marked defensive advantage at home — only 0.63 conceded per home match and 50% clean sheets, significantly limiting opponents’ chances. Hosts control matches (54% possession) and have higher home xG (1.47), translating into more chances than Audace. Audace Cerignola concede 1.31 on average away and score only 1.06 per away match, with a lower CS% (31%), indicating a weaker away defense. Although visitors show marginally higher PPG in the last 5, their away efficiency and lower finishing make them unlikely winners. Therefore a home victory is the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical review shows a moderate advantage for BTTS = Yes, mainly due to both teams' last5 BTTS 60% and decent xG and shot metrics indicating chances at both ends. Crotone at home have higher goals/xG (1.59/1.62) and lower goals conceded (1.29), while Audace Cerignola, despite lower season BTTS, improved offensively recently (last5 2.0 g/m and xG 1.41). Similar xG_against (~1.28–1.37) suggests both teams allow opportunities and league avg goals ~2.49 supports goals each way. Counterpoint is Crotone's more frequent clean sheets (CS 41%), reducing certainty, but last5 form and 60% recent BTTS favor both teams scoring. Recommendation: BTTS = Yes with moderate confidence.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Model based on xG and team stats: home xG 1.62 and away 1.35 with defensive xG against (away 1.37, home 1.28) yield expected goals ~1.50/1.31. Crotone posts higher shot and conversion rates and better last5 form, increasing scoring probability. Both teams frequently record Over 0.5 and 1.5 goals (high seasonOver15 percentages) and seasonal BTTS suggests both sides can score. With combined xG 2.81 and over/under history, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Crotone has a clear offensive and home advantage (seasonScoredAVG 1.59 vs 1.06; scoredAVGHT 0.76 vs 0.31), increasing the chance to lead at HT. HT stats show hosts more often lead or maintain good first-half form (leadingAtHTPercentage 29% and 60% HT leads in the last five matches). Overall home superiority and better xG and shot volume suggest they can hold the lead in the second half and convert an HT advantage into an FT win. Despite potential HT draws (high drawingAtHT), the home defensive HT balance and higher CSHT favour maintaining the result. Therefore the most likely and strongest signal is 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Crotone | Audace Cerignola | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Audace Cerignola is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Crotone · 1.8 pts / match - Audace Cerignola
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Crotone is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - Crotone · 1.33 goals / match - Audace Cerignola
Crotone is 34% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.97 goals / match - Crotone · 1.3 goals / match - Audace Cerignola
Crotone scores in 73% of matches (24 of 33 matches), while Audace Cerignola keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
Audace Cerignola scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Crotone keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Crotone
Over / Under - Audace Cerignola
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Crotone is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.61 pts / match - Crotone · 1.24 pts / match - Audace Cerignola
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Crotone - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Audace Cerignola - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (12 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Crotone
Audace Cerignola
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group C).
Teams vs league
| Crotone | Liga | Audace Cerignola | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.48 | 2.50 | ▲ 2.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 47% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 29% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 67% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 79% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Crotone 0 - 0 - 1 Audace Cerignola. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?
The Serie C Group C match finished Crotone 3:1 Audace Cerignola. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?
Crotone score 1.52 goals per game on average and Audace Cerignola 1.33. The Serie C Group C average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Crotone's matches and 48% of Audace Cerignola's.
What form are Crotone and Audace Cerignola in?
Over the last 5 games Crotone have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Audace Cerignola 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Crotone vs Audace Cerignola: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.