Crotone vs Foggia: match statistics

Crotone have a clearly superior record over their last five matches: they recorded 1 win, 2 draws and collected 5 points, while Foggia managed just 1 point from 4 defeats. The hosts scored 6 goals during this period—twice as many as Foggia’s 3—which points to greater attacking potential. However, Crotone’s defence remains prone to errors, having conceded 10 goals in five matches compared with 8 for the visitors. Foggia have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and are averaging just 0.6 goals per game over this spell, so their chances of an away win are limited. Crotone’s edge in finishing and recent points haul gives the hosts a moderate indication for a win, although the number of goals they concede increases the likelihood of a draw.

The BTTS signal is primarily driven by recent defensive form: Crotone conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five matches, while Foggia conceded 1.6. Crotone scored 1.2 goals per game over this period, with an xG of 1.44, which looks favorable against a Foggia defense allowing an average of 1.26 xG. Foggia scored just 3 goals in five matches, or 0.6 per game, but their xG of 1.11 and the hosts’ weak defense leave a realistic chance of finding the net. BTTS landed in 80% and 60% of the teams’ respective last five matches, so the Goal/Goal option holds a moderate but clear edge.

The available data from the last 5 matches indicates that Crotone averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.0, which favors a game with at least two goals. Foggia scored only 0.6 goals per match, while their opponents averaged 1.6 goals against them. The combined goal record from the five most recent matches stands at 16:10 for Crotone and 3:8 for Foggia, equating to an average of 3.2 and 2.2 goals per match, respectively. The Both Teams to Score rate is 80% for Crotone and 60% for Foggia, while the teams’ xG figures are 1.44 and 1.11. Therefore, Over 1.5 has a clearer edge than the more demanding 2.5 line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Crotone win at full-time, as the hosts have not trailed at the break in any of their last five matches: they led in 40% and were level in 60%. Over the same period, Foggia never took the lead before half-time, were behind at the break in 60% of matches, and scored just 0.2 goals per game before the interval, compared with 0.6 for Crotone. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in full-time results: Crotone averaged 1.0 point per match, while Foggia managed just 0.2, losing four of their last five outings. After the break, however, Crotone’s matches are very open, averaging 2.4 goals, with at least two goals scored in 80% of games, increasing the likelihood that an initial draw will be settled in the hosts’ favour. Crotone’s defence remains a risk, conceding an average of 1.8 goals after half-time, which is why the 1/1 option remains a close alternative; nevertheless, the draw after the first 45 minutes is more strongly supported by the data.