Crotone vs Latina: match statistics

Crotone holds a clear home advantage: they win 61% of matches at their stadium, score on average 1.44 goals per match and concede only 0.61, while Latina have an 11% win rate away, score 0.83 and concede 1.56. The difference in chance creation quality is evident — Crotone’s home xG is 1.51 with 11.94 shots and 3.89 shots on target, versus Latina’s xG 1.05 with 7.89 shots and 2.83 on-target efforts, indicating more clear-cut chances for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Crotone scored 9 and conceded 5, collecting 10 points (2.0 per match), whereas Latina scored 5 and conceded 4, collecting 7 points (1.4 per match), which confirms superior form and efficiency of the hosts. Defensively Crotone have 50% clean sheets at home versus Latina’s 17% away, and the percentage of matches without scoring is 28% for the hosts and 33% for the visitors, further favoring Crotone. As a result I predict a home victory; a draw remains possible given Latina’s capacity to draw on the road, hence the probability distribution.

I back No BTTS: Crotone has a season BTTS rate of only 26% versus Latina's 61%, but the decisive metrics are elsewhere – Crotone concedes just 0.74 goals per game and keeps a clean sheet in 42% of matches, which significantly reduces the visitors’ scoring chances. Latina scores 0.83 goals per game with 7.89 shots and xG 1.05, indicating limited finishing efficiency against a well-organized defense. Crotone creates more opportunities (10.79 shots and xG 1.34 per game) and has 57 goals this season versus Latina’s 30, suggesting home goals are more likely than goals from both teams. Although in the last 5 matches Crotone had BTTS in 60% and Latina in 40%, the seasonal profiles (Crotone BTTS 26% and a high league clean sheet rate of 56%) point toward a stronger “no” scenario; therefore I estimate BTTS probability at about 30% yes and 70% no.

The xG-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Crotone (xG for 1.34 vs xG against Latina 1.43) and 1.12 for Latina (xG for 1.05 vs xG against Crotone 1.19), totaling 2.51 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.51 implies roughly a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 46% for Over 2.5 and approximately 25% for Over 3.5. Seasonal figures corroborate a goal-prone tendency: Crotone has 84% of matches with at least one goal and 47% over 1.5, while Latina records 89% and 72% respectively; additionally, Latina concedes on average 1.56 goals per match (xG against 1.43). In the last 5 matches Crotone scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and conceded 5 (1.0), while Latina scored 5 (1.0) and conceded 4 (0.8), further supporting a minimum two-goal scenario. Based on these data, the strongest signal is backing Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over at the 1.5 line).

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time: the home side recorded a half-time draw in 53% of matches and the visitors in 50%, with average goals by half of 0.37 for Crotone and 0.22 for Latina, which favors a level score at the break. After the break I expect the home side to have the advantage — Crotone’s seasonal win rate is 37% versus Latina’s 11% and they average 1.32 points at home compared to 0.78 for Latina; the home xG is 1.34 versus 1.05 for Latina, suggesting better chance creation. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Crotone have a 60% win rate (form “dwlww” – 3 wins) and a higher average of second-half goals across those 5 games (2.2 vs 1.6), which supports a comeback after the break. As a result, the most likely scenario is a half-time draw and a home win (X/1 – 32%), with 18% probability for 1/1 and 13% for X/X, reflecting the high share of half-time draws (53%) and Crotone’s superior form and xG.