Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics

Cruz Azul Hidalgo are still without a win this season, but remain unbeaten at home with draws and defeats after 2 matches, while Tepatitlán de Morelos have lost both of their away fixtures so far. The hosts average 1 goal per match at home, compared with just 0.5 for the visitors, with Tepatitlán failing to score in 50% of their away games. Cruz Azul’s advantage is also evident in their control of play: average possession stands at 54% versus 38%, while the team registers 12.5 shots per match compared with 9 for their opponents. The visitors’ defence concedes an average of 2 goals away from home and allows chances worth 1.64 xG, so the hosts should create more opportunities than their average xG of 1.30 suggests. Both teams have averaged 0.6 points per match over their last five fixtures, meaning a draw remains a realistic outcome, but Tepatitlán’s poor finishing and 100% away defeat rate tilt the prediction in favour of the hosts.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Cruz Azul Hidalgo have failed to score in 67% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for Tepatitlán de Morelos. The average number of goals scored is just 1.0 for the hosts and only 0.5 for the visitors, while over the last five matches it has dropped to 0.6 and 0.8 respectively. The hosts’ historical BTTS rate is 33%, well below the league average of 54%, while the visitors’ rate stands at 50%. Both teams regularly concede goals, averaging 1.4 and 2.4 conceded per match in their last five games, which favors a result with goals from only one side more than a goalless draw. xG of 1.48 for the hosts and 1.21 for the visitors leaves a realistic chance of both teams scoring, but the visitors’ low conversion rate of 6% strengthens the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The defensive profile of both teams favors goals: Cruz Azul Hidalgo concede an average of 2.67 goals, while Tepatitlán de Morelos concede 2.00 per match, with neither side keeping a clean sheet in any of their games. Their creative potential is higher than their current scoring output, as average xG stands at 1.25 for the hosts and 1.16 for the visitors, rising to 1.48 and 1.21 respectively over the last five matches. Tepatitlán have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game in their last five outings, significantly increasing the hosts’ chances of improving on their low average of 0.6 goals scored. At least 2 goals were scored in 67% of Cruz Azul Hidalgo matches and 50% of Tepatitlán matches, while the league average of 3.26 goals further supports a high-scoring scenario. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as just two goals are needed for the bet to win, while the projected total is 2.69 goals.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo hold the scoring advantage this season, averaging 1.0 goal per match compared with Tepatitlán’s 0.5, while the visitors have lost every match so far. However, the hosts have been unconvincing before the break, scoring an average of just 0.2 goals in the first half across their last five matches and never leading at half-time. Nevertheless, Tepatitlán concede an average of 2.0 goals in second halves, have failed to score in that period in the available season data, and have lost the second half in 100% of their matches. The 1/1 scenario is rated highest, as the visitors’ weak defence, conceding an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, should allow the hosts to make the most of their home advantage and maintain a favourable result. The risk of a draw at half-time remains high, as both teams recorded one in 40–60% of their last five first halves.