Cruz Azul vs Necaxa: match statistics
Cruz Azul vs Necaxa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cruz Azul played Necaxa in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 27 April 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Cruz Azul: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Necaxa: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cruz Azul scores 1.73 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Necaxa scores 1.27 and concedes 1.61. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cruz Azul 70%, Necaxa 61%. Over 2.5: Cruz Azul 51%, Necaxa 55%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Cruz Azul has higher xG: 1.87 vs 1.47. Cruz Azul: 17.5 shots per match, Necaxa: 14.2.
Match halves
Cruz Azul: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.95. Necaxa: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Cruz Azul: 76-90+ (18 goals). Necaxa: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cruz Azul is the favorite mainly due to home dominance: on average 1.94 goals scored and xG 2.10 per home match with 19.72 shots and 6.72 on target, versus Necaxa’s 1.31 goals and xG 1.38 away with 12.63 shots and 4.25 on target. Defensively the gap is even clearer — Cruz Azul concedes 1.06 goals at home with xG against 0.93, while Necaxa concedes 2.25 goals away and records xG against 1.71; additionally Cruz Azul has 33% clean sheets at home vs only 6% for Necaxa on the road. Season-long stats show a higher level for the hosts: 19 wins and 64 goals scored overall and 67% win rate in home matches, whereas Necaxa has 9 wins in the season and only a 19% away win rate. However, Necaxa has better short-term form (last 5: 2-2-1, 7 goals and 1.6 points per game) compared to Cruz Azul, which has not won in the last 5 (0-4-1, 4-7 and 0.8 pts per game), increasing the chance of a draw. Considering the hosts’ offensive and defensive advantage at the Estadio and the visitors’ defensive frailties, I project a Cruz Azul win with probability 60%, draw 25% and Necaxa win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The Both Teams To Score scenario looks more probable: Necaxa has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75%, Cruz Azul at home 47%, and Cruz Azul records 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches. Necaxa concedes an average of 2.25 goals per game with xG against 1.71, while Cruz Azul generates xG 1.57 and scores 1.24 goals on average this season, suggesting the hosts will create chances against a vulnerable defense. In Cruz Azul’s last 5 matches they posted high xG of 2.11 but converted only 4 goals (0.8 avg), and Necaxa scored 7 goals in five fixtures while conceding 1.0 on average, so both sides are finding the net. Low clean sheet percentages (Cruz Azul 18%, Necaxa 6%), the league’s BTTS rate of 59% and an average goals figure of 2.91 further support an open, goal-heavy match. For these reasons I prefer BTTS - Yes and assess the probability at roughly 75% for Yes vs 25% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project total expected goals at 3.04 (Cruz Azul 1.64, Necaxa 1.40). Cruz Azul has average attacking xG 1.57, while Necaxa concedes opponents’ xG 1.71, yielding about 1.64 xG for the home side; Necaxa’s attacking xG is 1.38 versus Cruz Azul conceding xG 1.41, yielding about 1.40 xG for the visitors. This season Necaxa have 75% of matches over 2.5 goals, Cruz Azul 35%, and the league average is 56%, so a combined total of 3.04 indicates a high probability of Over 2.5 goals (around 65%) and an even higher probability for Over 1.5 (around 88%). Additionally, both teams scored in 75% of Necaxa’s matches, and Cruz Azul conceded in 82% of their fixtures this season, which increases the likelihood of both teams to score and further supports the Over 1.5 signal; Over 3.5 remains significantly less likely (around 30%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Cruz Azul leads at the break in 35% of home matches, while Necaxa are trailing at half-time in 63% of away fixtures; averaging these values yields roughly a 49% chance of the home side leading at the break. Over the full match Cruz Azul win 35% of games and Necaxa lose 63%—an average 49% chance for a home victory—which supports maintaining the lead from the first half. Additionally, the home xG is 1.57 versus the 1.71 xG that Necaxa typically concede away (xg_against_avg_away 1.71), and Cruz Azul average 4.47 shots on target with an 8% conversion rate, indicating a moderate creative advantage. Conversely Necaxa score an average of 0.81 goals after the break and 88% of their matches feature at least one second-half goal, so I assign meaningful probability to turnaround variants (e.g. 1/X and 2/2). On this basis the strongest signal is 1/1 (HT/FT home lead and home win), hence selecting 1/1 with the highest assigned probability of 34%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cruz Azul | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Necaxa is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Cruz Azul · 1.6 pts / match - Necaxa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cruz Azul is 36% better for: goals scored per match.
1.73 goals / match - Cruz Azul · 1.27 goals / match - Necaxa
Cruz Azul is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Cruz Azul · 1.61 goals / match - Necaxa
Cruz Azul scores in 92% of matches (34 of 37 matches), while Necaxa keeps a clean sheet in 12% (4 of 33 matches).
Necaxa scores in 67% of matches (22 of 33 matches), while Cruz Azul keeps a clean sheet in 27% (10 of 37 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cruz Azul
Over / Under - Necaxa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cruz Azul is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.51 pts / match - Cruz Azul · 1.03 pts / match - Necaxa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cruz Azul - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 51%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Necaxa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Cruz Azul | Liga | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.84 | 2.90 | • 2.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 70% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 51% | 56% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 24% | ▼ 12% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 72% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Cruz Azul 0 - 1 - 0 Necaxa. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?
The Liga MX match finished Cruz Azul 4:1 Necaxa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?
Cruz Azul score 1.73 goals per game on average and Necaxa 1.27. The Liga MX average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 70% of Cruz Azul's matches and 61% of Necaxa's.
What form are Cruz Azul and Necaxa in?
Over the last 5 games Cruz Azul have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Necaxa 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.