Cruzeiro vs Flamengo: match statistics

Flamengo sit 2nd in the table, while Cruzeiro are fifth, and the visitors’ away goal difference stands at +14 compared with the hosts’ +5 at home. The Rio side average 2.08 goals per away match, clearly more than Cruzeiro’s 1.58 goals in front of their home crowd, and they also fail to score less often: in 8% of matches compared with 17%. Flamengo are more effective at protecting their own goal, conceding 0.92 goals per away match compared with Cruzeiro’s 1.17 at home, although the hosts have more favourable metrics for the quality of chances conceded, with an xG against of 1.00 compared with 1.40. Both teams are unbeaten in their last five matches, but Cruzeiro have won 3 times and conceded only 3 goals, making a draw a realistic scenario. Flamengo’s superior finishing efficiency, with 16% of shots converted compared with the opponents’ 10%, nevertheless shifts the forecast slightly towards an away win.

Both teams very rarely finish matches without scoring: Cruzeiro failed to score in only 10% of their games, while Flamengo did so in just 8%. The hosts generate an average xG of 1.92 and record 5.6 shots on target per match, whereas Flamengo score an average of 2.08 goals with a shot conversion rate of 16%. The trend from the last five matches also supports goals from both sides, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Cruzeiro’s games and as many as 80% of Flamengo’s. Although Cruzeiro concede only 0.8 goals on average, Flamengo possess sufficient attacking quality, as confirmed by an xG of 1.84 over the last five rounds and an average of 2.0 goals scored. The risk to the pick is that Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, but the combination of consistently productive attacks slightly favors BTTS - Yes.

Cruzeiro concede an average of just 0.80 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, which limits Flamengo’s attacking potential despite their average of 2.08 goals scored. Flamengo also boast a solid defense, conceding an average of 0.92 goals, while Cruzeiro have scored 1.6 goals per game in their last five matches. In the current campaign, under 3.5 goals has landed in 80% of Cruzeiro’s matches and 75% of Flamengo’s, while in their last five fixtures, only 40% and 20% of their games respectively went over the 2.5-goal line. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 17.6 shots and 5.6 shots on target, but the projected total of 2.53 goals still clearly supports the under 3.5 goals option. The under 3.5 line has the edge because both teams combine consistent scoring with defenses that rarely allow a four-goal total.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Cruzeiro win: in their last five matches, the hosts were level at the break in 60% of games, compared with 40% for Flamengo. The opening phase should be cautious, as Cruzeiro concede an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time, while both teams have recorded only 0.2 goals conceded in the first half across their last five appearances. After the break, Cruzeiro’s advantage grows: the hosts score an average of 1.3 goals in second halves and win them in 70% of matches, compared with 57% for Flamengo. The hosts’ overall success is also supported by their higher xG, 1.92 versus 1.46, more shots on target per match, 5.6 versus 4.83, and a stronger defence over the season, conceding an average of 0.8 goals compared with the opponents’ 0.92.