Brazil - Serie AEstádio Governador Magalhães PintoData current as of 07 October 2026

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Cruzeiro play São Paulo in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 8 October 2026. Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.

Current form

Cruzeiro: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. São Paulo: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.

Goal statistics

Cruzeiro scores 1.50 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. São Paulo scores 1.18 and concedes 1.14. League average: 2.66 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Cruzeiro 71%, São Paulo 57%. Over 2.5: Cruzeiro 68%, São Paulo 39%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 52%.

xG, shots and style

Cruzeiro has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.47. Cruzeiro: 14.5 shots per match, São Paulo: 13.2.

Match halves

Cruzeiro: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.93. São Paulo: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.68.

Goals by minute

Cruzeiro: 76-90+ (12 goals). São Paulo: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Serie A: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 52%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 67%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(1.86)
(3.57)
(4.47)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

CruzeiroSão Paulo
1.5Goals scored / match1.18
CruzeiroSão Paulo
1.43Goals conceded / match1.14
CruzeiroSão Paulo
55%Average possession54%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
4.89Shots on target / match4.18
CruzeiroSão Paulo

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

14.54Shots per match13.18
CruzeiroSão Paulo
4.89Shots on target4.18
CruzeiroSão Paulo
10.3%Shot conversion8.9%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
55%Possession54%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
1.59xG for1.47
CruzeiroSão Paulo
1.43xG against1.27
CruzeiroSão Paulo

Shooting quality

Cruzeiro: DominantSão Paulo: Balanced
CruzeiroSão Paulo
Accuracy (shots on target)34%32%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.310.28

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Cruzeiro
WLWLW
Season result split
46% W21% D32% L
Season (W-D-L)
13-6-9
1.61 pts / match · goal difference +2
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-0-2
1.80 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
7-4-3
Last 5 at home
3-1-1
DLWWW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.70Opponent xG: 2.21BTTS: 100%Over 2.5: 100%
São Paulo
WWLWL
Season result split
36% W21% D43% L
Season (W-D-L)
10-6-12
1.29 pts / match · goal difference +1
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-0-2
1.80 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
2-3-9
Last 5 away
0-1-4
LDLLL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.2Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.57Opponent xG: 1.15BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Cruzeiro is 27% better for: goals scored per match.

1.5 goals / match - Cruzeiro · 1.18 goals / match - São Paulo

São Paulo is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.

1.43 goals / match - Cruzeiro · 1.14 goals / match - São Paulo

Cruzeiro scoring profile: very strong

Cruzeiro scores in 86% of matches (24 of 28 matches), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).

São Paulo scoring profile: very strong

São Paulo scores in 79% of matches (22 of 28 matches), while Cruzeiro keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 matches).

42Goals scored (season)33
CruzeiroSão Paulo
40Goals conceded (season)32
CruzeiroSão Paulo
2.93Average goals in match2.32
CruzeiroSão Paulo
10Goals scored (last 5)6
CruzeiroSão Paulo
8Goals conceded (last 5)5
CruzeiroSão Paulo

How often they score at least...

86%1 goal79%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
46%2 goals32%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
18%3 goals4%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
0%4 goals4%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

How often they concede at least...

82%1 goal79%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
36%2 goals32%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
18%3 goals4%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
7%4 goals0%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

59%
League average

Goal patterns

25%BTTS at half-time7%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
4%BTTS in both halves4%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
32%Scored in both halves14%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

BTTS and goal count

61%Min. 3 goals and BTTS39%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
7%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
100%BTTS - last 540%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

86%Min. 1 goal before half-time71%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
43%Min. 2 goals before half-time18%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
4%Min. 3 goals before half-time0%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

2nd half

82%Min. 1 goal after half-time89%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
50%Min. 2 goals after half-time39%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
18%Min. 3 goals after half-time14%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

São Paulo is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.14 pts / match - Cruzeiro · 1.43 pts / match - São Paulo

Cruzeiro - half-time state
25% leading39% draw36% trailing
São Paulo - half-time state
36% leading36% draw29% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.14Points per match (1st half)1.43
CruzeiroSão Paulo
0.57Goals scored (1st half)0.5
CruzeiroSão Paulo
0.75Goals conceded (1st half)0.39
CruzeiroSão Paulo
1.32Average goals (1st half)0.89
CruzeiroSão Paulo
39%Clean sheet before half-time64%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
50%No goal before half-time57%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

After half-time (2nd half)

1.54Points per match (2nd half)1.32
CruzeiroSão Paulo
0.93Goals scored (2nd half)0.68
CruzeiroSão Paulo
0.68Goals conceded (2nd half)0.75
CruzeiroSão Paulo
1.61Average goals (2nd half)1.43
CruzeiroSão Paulo
57%Clean sheet after half-time43%
CruzeiroSão Paulo
32%No goal after half-time50%
CruzeiroSão Paulo

Cruzeiro - second-half results

39% W36% D25% L
32
Half-time points
16
Half-time goals
-5
Goal difference (1st half)
43
Second-half points
+7
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.14
PPG before half-time
Lead holding184%

Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

São Paulo - second-half results

39% W14% D46% L
40
Half-time points
14
Half-time goals
+3
Goal difference (1st half)
37
Second-half points
-2
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.43
PPG before half-time
Lead holding100%

Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Cruzeiro - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match0.202.40
Goals scored / match0.21.8
Goals conceded / match1.20.4
Average goals in match1.42.2
1 goal100%100%
2 goals40%80%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet0%80%
No goal80%0%
Goal difference-5+7
Half-time: 0% leading - 20% draw - 80% trailing
2nd half: 80% won - 0% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 1
São Paulo - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.600.80
Goals scored / match0.80.4
Goals conceded / match0.40.6
Average goals in match1.21.0
1 goal80%80%
2 goals40%20%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet60%40%
No goal40%80%
Goal difference+2-1
Half-time: 40% leading - 40% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 20% draw - 60% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 4

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Cruzeiro
ScoredConceded
5
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
9
31-45
6
7
46-60
8
2
61-75
12
10
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.

São Paulo
ScoredConceded
5
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
11
46-60
9
3
61-75
5
7
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.63
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.3 : 1.3
Estimated goal split
home : away
99%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
64%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+2%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
68%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
3%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 33 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Cruzeiro

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.16
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.09
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+1.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.09
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
0.00
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
99%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
124%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.19
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.4
Late goals
29% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 12% come in the first quarter-hour.
29%

São Paulo

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.20
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.16
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-7.3 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.29
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.13
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
103%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
75%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.51
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.2
Late goals
15% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 15% come in the first quarter-hour.
15%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

CruzeiroLigaSão Paulo
Average goals in match▲ 2.932.66▼ 2.32
Both teams scored▲ 71%59%▼ 57%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 68%52%▼ 39%
Clean sheets▼ 18%23%▼ 21%
Goal before half-time▲ 86%75%▼ 71%
Goal after half-time▲ 82%78%▲ 89%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.66
Average goals per match
59%
Both teams scored
52%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
23%
Clean sheets
1.52
Home goals / match
1.15
Away goals / match
+32%
Home attack advantage
+24%
Home defence advantage
+22%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
75%
1 goal
34%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
1%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
78%
1 goal
44%
2 goals
18%
3 goals
5%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (3): Cruzeiro 1 - 1 - 1 São Paulo. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.

São Paulo
4 : 1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro EC
1 : 0
São Paulo FC
São Paulo FC
1 : 1
Cruzeiro EC

FAQ

When do Cruzeiro and São Paulo play?

Cruzeiro face São Paulo on 8 October 2026 in Serie A at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and São Paulo?

In the last 3 head-to-head matches Cruzeiro won 1, São Paulo won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Cruzeiro score 1.50 goals per game on average and São Paulo 1.18. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Cruzeiro's matches and 57% of São Paulo's.

What form are Cruzeiro and São Paulo in?

Over the last 5 games Cruzeiro have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and São Paulo 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.