CS Marítimo vs Benfica: match statistics

Benfica are in excellent form: they have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last five matches, scoring 16 goals in total, while Marítimo have conceded 8 goals over the same period. Away from home, the visitors have won all of their matches so far, scoring an average of 7 goals and conceding none, while their average xG stands at 2.30 compared with just 0.39 xG allowed to opponents. Marítimo remain unbeaten at home, but have drawn 50% of their matches and create chances worth an average of 1.41 xG, clearly less than Benfica. Benfica’s superiority is also evident in their control of the game: they average 20 shots, including 8 on target, with 64% possession, compared with the hosts’ 13 shots, 4 on target and 46% possession. The hosts score regularly, but the visitors’ finishing and exceptionally tight defence strongly point towards an away win.

Benfica has a very strong attacking profile, averaging 3.2 goals over the last 5 matches with an xG of 2.50, making them very likely to score. However, the key argument against BTTS is the visitors’ defence: they have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches, while their average xG conceded is just 0.39. Marítimo take plenty of shots, averaging 26.5 per match, but convert them into goals only 8% of the time, and their xG has fallen to 1.39 over the last 5 fixtures. The hosts conceded in 80% of their last five matches and allowed an average of 1.6 goals, reinforcing the scenario of a Benfica win without requiring a response from the opposition. Although both teams have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances, Benfica’s season profile of 0% BTTS and a perfect clean-sheet record provides a slightly stronger signal for the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

Benfica are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.2 goals across their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 2.50. Over the same period, Marítimo conceded 1.6 goals per game and allowed opponents an xG of 1.45, which supports the expectation of at least two goals for the visitors. The hosts have also scored in every match so far, while 4 of their last 5 games produced at least 3 goals. Both teams have recorded Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five matches, compared with a league average of just 48%, clearly raising expectations for a high-scoring game. However, the safest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both sides have recorded 100% of their matches with at least 2 goals so far.

Benfica have won four of their last five matches, remain unbeaten, and held the lead at the break in 80% of those games, while Marítimo have yet to go into half-time ahead. The visitors have averaged 1.4 goals before the break, compared with just 0.4 for the hosts, who have also conceded as many as 1.2 goals per match during this phase. Benfica’s advantage is also evident defensively: their average xG conceded stands at 0.39, compared with 0.71 for Marítimo, and they have kept a clean sheet in 100% of the matches covered by the current data. After the break, Benfica continue to score an average of 1.8 goals across their last five appearances, making a 1/1 HT/FT outcome—their lead at half-time followed by a full-time win—the most logical scenario.