Csákvári TK vs Kazincbarcika: match statistics

Kazincbarcika sit 3rd and remain unbeaten after 4 rounds, with a record of 2 wins and 2 draws, while Csákvári TK have 1 win and 3 defeats. However, the visitors are exceptionally draw-prone away from home: both of their away matches ended level, they average 1 goal scored on the road, and they have failed to score in 50% of those games. At home, the hosts create more, averaging 1.30 xG, 5 shots on target and 60% possession, compared with Kazincbarcika’s 1.05 xG and 2.5 shots on target away from home. Both defenses concede 1 goal per match under these conditions, while Csákvári TK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home games. The visitors’ stronger run over their last five matches, in which they have scored 9 goals and have not lost once, offsets the hosts’ advantage in the home data, making a draw the most likely outcome.

Csákvári TK have recorded BTTS in 100% of their home matches so far and have not kept a single clean sheet, which strongly supports a Kazincbarcika goal. The visitors have seen BTTS in 80% of their last five fixtures, scoring an average of 1.8 goals, while the hosts conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. Both sides create chances of similar quality: average xG stands at 1.21 for the hosts and 1.05 for the visitors, while their recent xG against figures are 1.73 and 1.76 respectively. Csákvári TK are particularly reliable offensively at home, averaging 2.5 goals and 4.0 shots on target per match, whereas Kazincbarcika have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their away games, which limits confidence in the pick. Despite this defensive caveat for the visitors, the combination of the hosts’ defensive weaknesses and both teams’ current attacking form gives the BTTS - Yes scenario an edge.

In their last five matches, Csákvári TK averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Kazincbarcika scored 1.8 goals and conceded 1.2. Both teams also allow an elevated number of chances, with average xG against them standing at 1.73 for the home side and 1.76 for the visitors. The Over 2.5 goals line was surpassed in 60% of Csákvári’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Kazincbarcika’s games, supporting a scenario with at least three goals. The strongest signal, however, points to Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts have surpassed this line in every match so far this season, while the projected total of 2.75 goals provides a significant margin above the required two goals. Additionally, the last five matches involving each team produced an average total of 3.0 and 3.0 goals per game, respectively.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60% of cases. Kazincbarcika remain unbeaten in their last five games, recording 3 draws and 2 wins, while their average of 1.8 goals scored is higher than Csákvári TK’s 1.4. The hosts do have a perfect winning record in their home matches and average 2.5 goals scored, but this is a very small sample, whereas they have conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last five appearances. The difference in chance quality is also marginal: the hosts’ xG stands at 1.21 compared with 1.05 for the visitors. Combined with the visitors’ defensive resilience and average of just 1.2 goals conceded over their last five matches, this supports the prospect of a draw at full-time as well. The X/X outcome therefore remains the most likely, although a draw at half-time followed by a home win is only marginally less likely.