Csákvári TK vs Kozármisleny: match statistics

I predict a home win (1), because Csákvári TK score an average of 1.85 goals per home match with average xG 1.71, while Kozármisleny score only 1.08 goals away with xG 1.02. Chance creation favors the hosts: at home they average 14.08 shots and 5.46 on target per match, whereas the visitors register 7.62 shots and 2.38 on target, which corresponds to 41 goals for the hosts versus 30 goals for Kozármisleny this season. Defensively, the hosts concede 1.38 goals per home match compared to 1.62 conceded by Kozármisleny away, and the percentage of matches without scoring is 8% for the hosts versus 31% for the visitors, all favoring the home side. In the last 5 matches Csákvári scored 13 goals while Kozármisleny only 5, although both teams have similar points-per-game averages of 1.6 in their last five; the difference is therefore mainly attacking strength and quality of chances. Based on this I assess probabilities at 62% for the home win, 23% for a draw and 15% for the away win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 46% (Csákvári 46%, Kozármisleny 46%), versus a league average of 48%, so the baseline is neutral. In the last 5 matches the home side has BTTS in 100% of games, scoring on average 2.6 and conceding 1.6, while Kozármisleny has BTTS in 60% with averages of 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. Csákvári clearly creates more chances: 11.62 shots and 4.15 on target per match and a recent xG of 1.83 (season xG 1.4), whereas the visitors average 7.62 shots, 2.38 on target and a recent xG of 1.39 (season xG 1.02), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Seasonally the hosts concede 1.23 goals per game, the visitors 1.62, and clean sheets are just 31% for the hosts and 23% for the visitors; given these figures I estimate BTTS at around 68% and therefore select BTTS - Yes.

Both teams have a very high season rate of matches over 1.5 goals — 85% for Csákvári and 85% for Kozármisleny — and 0.5+ occurs in 92% of home matches and 100% of away matches. xG confirms the tendency for goals: hosts have xG_for 1.40, while visitors concede xG_against 1.84, yielding an estimated 1.62 expected goals for the home side; visitors have xG_for 1.02 versus the hosts’ xG_against 1.45, giving about 1.24 expected goals for the away side — totaling ~2.86 goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Csákvári score an average 2.6 goals and their last 5 fixtures are 100% Over 2.5, while Kozármisleny average 1.0 and have 40% Over 2.5, which increases the likelihood of goals in this match. Season Over 2.5 rates are 54% for the hosts and 38% for the guests, therefore I forecast a moderately high probability of Over 2.5 at 58%, whereas Over 3.5 is much less likely (15%/23% seasonally) and I assign it 25%. The strongest signal, however, is Over 1.5 (85% seasonally + expected 2.86 goals), so I recommend taking the over at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (home team leads at the break and wins), because the hosts have a clear advantage in chance creation: average xG 1.40 versus 1.02 for the visitors and average shots on target 4.15 to 2.38. In their last 5 matches the hosts were leading at the break in 40% of games, and their average first-half goals in those 5 matches is 1.2 versus 0.4 for the visitors, which strongly indicates higher chances for the hosts after 45 minutes. Over the season the hosts score on average 1.23 goals per game and register 11.62 shots, while the visitors have 1.08 goals and 7.62 shots, and the hosts achieve more wins (38% vs 31%). However, a draw is a real risk: both teams record high draw rates (38% and 31%) and in the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 0.6 second-half goals, so I have also assigned significant probability to the 1/X and X/X scenarios.