Csákvári TK vs Nagykanizsai TE: match statistics

Nagykanizsai TE are the favorites in this match: in the last 5 games the visitors have scored 14 goals and conceded 4, while Csákvári TK have only 3 goals and 6 conceded. The gap is also visible in wins — Nagykanizsai have won 4 of their last 5, the hosts only 2 (forms: home llwwl, away wwwwl) — which translates to 2.4 points per game for the visitors versus 1.2 for the hosts. Per match the visitors average 2.8 goals scored (14/5) and 0.8 conceded (4/5), while the hosts average 0.6 scored (3/5) and 1.2 conceded (6/5), indicating Nagykanizsai’s offensive advantage and superior defensive stability. In the table the difference is marginal (visitors 13th, hosts 14th), but recent form and efficiency from the last five fixtures favor the away side. Based on this I forecast an away win; estimated probabilities: 65% Nagykanizsai, 20% draw, 15% Csákvári win.

Based on the provided statistics, it is more likely that both teams will not score (BTTS = No). In the last 5 matches the home side averaged 0.6 goals scored and conceded 1.2, while the away side averaged 2.8 goals scored and conceded 0.8, indicating only the visitors have a clear scoring form. Additionally, the league features a high clean sheet rate of 75%, and the home team has only 20% BTTS in their last 5 matches versus 40% for the visitors, so clean sheets are common. Home xG over the last 5 games is 1.18 with xG against 1.6, whereas the visitors, despite xG for 0.26, have scored 14 goals in 5 matches (2.8 avg), demonstrating the away side’s finishing exceeds what xG would suggest. Overall the contrast (0.6 vs 2.8 in goals scored and 1.2 vs 0.8 in goals conceded) provides a stronger signal for No BTTS, hence the selection of “No.”

In the last five matches the home side scored a total of 3 goals (0.6 per match), while the away side scored 14 goals (2.8 per match), giving a combined average of 3.4 goals between both teams. The home side’s season xG is 1.26 with xG against 1.45, and in the last 5 matches the home xG is 1.18 with xG against 1.60, so the expected match output involving the home team centers around 2.7–3.0 goals. The away team is in clear form (form 'wwwwl') and concedes on average 0.8 goals in the last 5 matches while scoring 2.8, which increases the likelihood of goals on their side. Based on this I project 1.15 goals for the home team and 1.85 goals for the away team (total 3.00), therefore the strongest signal is Over 2.5 with an estimated probability of 72% (over) versus 28% (under). I rate Over 1.5 at 92% given the combined 3.4 goals in recent runs and the home team’s season-over-2.5 rate of 100%, whereas Over 3.5 carries lower confidence (38%) due to the home side’s low 0.6 average in the last five matches.

The visitors are in better form over the last 5 matches — they have won 80% (4 of 5) and held a lead at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), averaging 1.6 goals by half-time. The hosts over their last 5 matches have won 40% (2 of 5) and led at the break in only 20% (1 of 5), averaging 0.4 goals before the break. On the season the hosts average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per match, with an xG of 1.26 versus an xG against of 1.45, indicating a defensive deficit and a higher risk of conceding. Considering the visitors’ advantage at the break and their 80% win rate in form, the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 2/2) — I assign that a 38% probability. As alternatives I rate Half-Time draw/Full-Time visitors (X/2) at 20% and Half-Time draw/Full-Time draw (X/X) at 12%, while combinations with the hosts leading at the break are less likely (e.g. 1/1 — 6%).