CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Dunav 2010: match statistics

CSKA 1948 Sofia are exceptionally strong at home, having won all 4 of their home fixtures so far, scoring an average of 2.50 goals and conceding just 0.75. Dunav 2010 have lost 75% of their away matches, while on the road they allow opponents an average of 2.00 goals and an xG of 2.24. The hosts create more scoring opportunities, averaging 7.75 shots per match, including 3.75 on target, compared with 6.25 and 2.75 respectively for the visitors. CSKA’s superiority is also reflected in possession, with 56% compared to Dunav’s 36%, which should translate into control of the match. Although the hosts have won only 2 of their last five matches overall, their perfect home record and the visitors’ defensive frailties strongly point towards a CSKA 1948 Sofia victory.

Dunav 2010 have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches this season, while the figure stands at 60% across their last five games, confirming the open profile of their fixtures. Neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.75 goals and the visitors as many as 2.00 per match. CSKA 1948 Sofia have scored just 0.5 goals per game to date and failed to score in 75% of their matches, which clearly reduces confidence in the Goal/Goal scenario. However, the hosts’ current form looks stronger: they have averaged 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while Dunav allowed opponents 1.8 goals over the same period. With the hosts’ xG at 1.17 across their last five appearances and xG against Dunav at 1.48, it is marginally more likely that both teams will score.

The model projects 2.60 goals, as the home side creates an average of 1.15 xG, while opponents allow as much as 2.24 xG per match, significantly strengthening the outlook for a CSKA 1948 goal. Dunav scores an average of 1.25 goals, but its average xG is only 0.95, while the home side has conceded just 1.0 goal per match in its last five fixtures. In the last five matches played by both teams, results over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% and 60% of cases, respectively, making the 2.5 line virtually balanced. The strongest signal points to Under 3.5: both teams recorded fewer than 3.5 total goals in 75% of their matches, and neither registered a game with over 4.5 goals. The home side has recently scored 1.4 goals per match, while Dunav concedes 1.8, supporting a result in the region of 2–3 goals but not pointing to a highly open game.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA 1948 Sofia win, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 out of 5 for Dunav. Both teams have been very cautious in the first half: the hosts have averaged 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while the visitors have scored just 0.2 goals. After the break, CSKA clearly improve, averaging 1.0 goals in their last five matches, whereas Dunav concede as many as 1.4 goals during that period. The hosts are also in better recent form, with 2 wins in 5 matches and an average of 1.4 goals scored, compared with Dunav's 1 win and 1.0 goal per game. In addition, Dunav have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five outings, increasing CSKA's chances of turning a closely contested match in their favour after half-time. The recommended HT/FT selection is X/2.