CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II holds a clear advantage both offensively and defensively: they have scored 48 goals and conceded 28 this season, averaging 2.14 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home match; Hebar 1918 have 37 scored and 43 conceded, with away averages of 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. The quality gap in chance creation is evident in xG and shots—CSKA averages 1.91 xG and 8.29 shots on target per match, while Hebar records 1.11 xG and 5.15 shots on target, which translates into more clear-cut chances for the hosts. In the last 5 matches CSKA have scored 9 goals and won 3 of 5 (1.8 points per game), whereas Hebar scored 7, won 2 and average 1.6 points, confirming a slight edge for CSKA. Additionally, the hosts have a 64% home win rate and 50% clean sheets at home with a home goal difference of +23, while Hebar have a 38% away win rate and only +2 goal difference, so the hosts’ defense appears harder to break down. Considering superior chance creation, lower goals conceded (0.5 vs 1.31) and higher home efficiency, I tip a home win; I assess probabilities as 65% for CSKA, 20% for a draw and 15% for Hebar, with the visitors having minimal advantages in conversion (17% vs 16%).

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor both teams: CSKA Sofia II has BTTS at 54%, Hebar 62% (average 58%) versus the league value of 45%. Scoring stats show genuine threat from both sides — CSKA concedes on average 2.0 goals per match, while Hebar scores 1.46; conversely Hebar concedes 1.31 and CSKA scores 1.38 per match. xG confirms scoring potential: CSKA xG_for 1.63 vs Hebar xG_against 1.12, and Hebar xG_for 1.11 vs CSKA xG_against 1.35, so both teams generate roughly 1.1–1.6 expected goals. The last 5 matches lower confidence slightly (BTTS 40% for both), but form shows CSKA scored 9 and conceded 5 in the last 5 (avg 1.8 and 1.0), and Hebar 7 and 8 (1.4 and 1.6), which still suggests matches with goals from both sides. Considering seasonal BTTS 54%/62%, CSKA’s high goals-against rate of 2.0 and xG 1.63 vs 1.12, I tip BTTS - Yes as more likely (68%) than No Goal (32%).

I model expected goals as the average between a team’s xG and the opponent’s xG, yielding 1.38 xG for CSKA Sofia II and 1.23 xG for Hebar 1918, totaling 2.61 xG. Seasonally, the share of matches over 1.5 goals is 92% for the home side and 85% for the away side (average 88%), and the share of matches where both teams scored is 54% and 62%, which supports a scenario of at least two goals. Seasonal frequency over 2.5 is 62% (CSKA) and 54% (Hebar), while over 3.5 is only 38% and 31% (average ~34%), so Over 2.5 is moderately likely and Over 3.5 less so. Additionally, the hosts concede an average of 2.00 goals per match versus Hebar’s scoring average of 1.46, increasing the risk of multiple goals in the game. Summing xG=2.61 and the seasonal indicators (Over 1.5 ~88% and Over 2.5 ~58%), I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest play.

The hosts appear to have the advantage at the break: CSKA led at half-time in 33% of matches and scores an average of 0.92 goals in the first half versus Hebar’s 0.54; additionally the hosts’ first-half xG is 1.63 compared to 1.11 and they average 11.62 shots against 8.38, which confirms their ability to create chances before the break. After the break, however, Hebar is stronger — the visitors score an average of 0.92 goals in the second half, win second halves in 54% of cases and have accumulated 24 points from second halves versus the hosts’ 11 points, while the hosts concede an average of 1.00 goal after the break. The percentage of host matches with at least one goal before half-time is 92%, so I expect CSKA will most likely open the scoring, but the second-half statistics increase the chance of a turnaround. Consequently the most reliable signal is the scenario of CSKA leading at half-time and the match ending level (1/X), with a smaller but notable probability of maintaining the lead (1/1) or Hebar staging a turnaround after the interval (1/2).