CSKA Sofia II vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II sit 2nd in the home table and have won every match on their own ground, while Ludogorets II are 9th in the away standings. The hosts have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, winning 4 and drawing once, whereas the visitors have managed just 6 goals over the same period and have lost their last two games. CSKA create significantly more danger at home, averaging 17 shots and 7 on target with 56% possession, compared with Ludogorets’ away averages of 5.5 shots, 2 on target and 38% possession. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances, with the hosts averaging 1.89 xG and the visitors just 0.79 away from home; Ludogorets have also failed to score in 50% of their away matches. CSKA concede as many as 3 goals per home game on average, making a clean sheet unlikely, but their average of 4 goals scored per home match provides a strong foundation for a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Ludogorets II’s limited attacking potential: the visitors score just 0.5 goals per game this season, while their average xG stands at 0.79. Ludogorets II have failed to score in half of their matches so far and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of them, with a season BTTS rate of 0%. CSKA Sofia II have been more effective recently, scoring 2.4 goals per game across their last five appearances, while conceding just 0.8 goals per match over the same period. The hosts may exploit the opponent’s weaker defence, reflected in their average xG conceded of 1.53, but the more likely scenario remains one in which at least one team—particularly the visitors—fails to score. The last five matches involving both teams produced BTTS in only 40% of cases, below the league average of 47%.

The strongest signal is the low goal ceiling: both teams have recorded a maximum of three goals in 100% of their matches so far. Ludogorets II score only 0.5 goals per match on average, while their average xG stands at 0.79, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game for the visitors. CSKA Sofia II are in better form, scoring 2.4 goals per match in their last five appearances, but the opposition have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season. The last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals in 60% of CSKA's games and 40% of Ludogorets' games, but neither side has exceeded the 3.5-goal line so far. The projected total of 2.55 goals leaves room for a 2:0, 2:1 or 1:1 scoreline, which is why Under 3.5 has a clear edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia II victory at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches. The first halves were cautious, with the hosts averaging 0.4 goals and the visitors 0.6, while the combined average stood at just 0.8 and 1.0 goals, respectively. After the break, CSKA’s form advantage becomes clear: in their last five matches, the team averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Ludogorets II averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. The hosts won 80% of their last five matches and remain unbeaten, whereas the visitors lost 40% of their games during this period. In addition, CSKA have a higher attacking xG average, 1.08 compared with 0.79, while Ludogorets II allow opponents an xG of 1.53, increasing the hosts’ chances of securing the result after the break.