CSKA Sofia II vs Montana: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II remain unbeaten at home, winning 67% of their matches, while Montana are still without an away victory and have lost half of their games. The hosts average 3.33 goals per home match from 15 shots, including 7.33 on target, whereas Montana score just 1.25 goals away from home. CSKA’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.78 compared with the visitors’ 1.48, while Montana allow opponents an xG of 1.72. Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five league rounds, but Montana have recorded two draws and two defeats in their last four away matches. However, the hosts’ defensive record does not justify a high level of confidence, as they concede an average of 1.67 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, making a goalscoring outcome for the visitors a realistic possibility.

Although Montana have recorded BTTS in 75% of their matches this season, the last five games for both teams have produced this scenario in only 40% of cases. CSKA Sofia II keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and have conceded just 0.8 goals per game over their last five fixtures, limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Montana average 1.25 goals per game this season and 1.2 over their last five matches, while the hosts restrict opponents to just 1.30 xG. The hosts should create chances, as they score an average of 2.0 goals and Montana concede 1.75, but it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score. In addition, the league BTTS rate is only 47%, which is lower than the probability of the BTTS - No scenario.

CSKA Sofia II score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Montana concede 1.75, clearly supporting at least one goal from the home side. Montana create chances worth 1.48 xG per game and average 5.25 shots on target, while the CSKA Sofia II defence allows opponents 1.30 xG. Over the course of the season, both teams have recorded at least 2 goals in 75% of their matches, while Montana also surpassed this threshold in 60% of their last five appearances. CSKA’s form is somewhat more conservative, as only 20% of their last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals, so the 2.5 line offers a less decisive edge. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the projected total of 2.70 goals remains clearly above this threshold, while the attacking numbers of both sides reduce the risk of a 0:0 or 1:0 result.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia II victory at the final whistle, as Montana were level at the break in all four of their away matches so far and have done so in 60% of their last five games. The hosts are clearly more effective over the course of the full match: they win 75% of their home fixtures and score an average of 2.00 goals, while Montana have not won away from home and concede an average of 1.75 goals. CSKA’s advantage should grow after the break, as they score an average of 1.50 goals in second halves compared with Montana’s mere 0.25, while the hosts have won 75% of their second halves. The opening phase may nevertheless be cautious: CSKA score an average of 0.50 goals before half-time, and the average number of first-half goals in the teams’ last five matches was 1.0 and 0.8, respectively. In addition, the hosts possess superior finishing quality, converting 17% of their shots into goals compared with Montana’s 11%, which further supports the prediction of a later victory.