CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II rank 3rd in the home table, while Spartak Pleven are 13th away from home. The hosts have collected 11 points from 6 matches this season, compared with the visitors’ 7 points from 5 games. The Sofia side have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals during that run, whereas Spartak have netted just 6 times over the same period and suffered 2 defeats. At home, CSKA create significantly more chances, averaging 17 shots and 6 shots on target per match, compared with Spartak’s 10 shots and 2.67 shots on target away from home. The hosts also hold an advantage in chance quality, with an average xG of 1.81, while opponents away from home allow 1.69 xG. However, Spartak could exploit weaknesses in CSKA’s defence, which concedes an average of 2 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a home win with both teams scoring.

The BTTS signal is moderately negative, as both teams have seen this outcome in only 50% and 33% of their matches respectively this season, compared with a league average of 48%. Spartak Pleven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, while CSKA Sofia II have failed to score in 50% of their appearances, significantly increasing the risk that at least one side will finish the match without scoring. BTTS has landed in 40% of each team’s last five matches, despite CSKA averaging 1.8 goals and Spartak conceding 1.4 goals. The hosts are creating good chances, however, with a season xG of 1.75 and 3.5 shots on target per match, making a CSKA goal likely. The visitors’ weaker attacking consistency—averaging 2.67 shots on target and 1.2 goals in their last five matches—shifts the prediction towards BTTS - No.

CSKA Sofia II create chances worth an average of 1.75 xG at home, while Spartak Pleven allow opponents 1.69 xG away from home, which clearly supports the hosts’ attacking output. The visitors score an average of 1.33 goals per match, while CSKA II concede an average of 1.00 goal and have yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, the two teams combined for an average of 3.0 goals per game, with their average xG standing at 1.41 and 1.46, respectively. At least 2 goals were scored in 100% of Spartak’s away matches and 50% of CSKA II’s games, while the projected total of 2.75 goals gives a solid edge to the Over 1.5 market. The 2.5 line is considerably more balanced, as Over 2.5 landed in 40% of the hosts’ last five matches and 60% of the visitors’ games.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a win for CSKA Sofia II, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 out of 5 for Spartak Pleven. The opening stages of matches are usually cautious: CSKA have scored just 0.2 goals per game before half-time in their last five fixtures, while the visitors have averaged 0.4, with the hosts conceding only 0.4 goals. After the break, the advantage should shift towards CSKA, who have averaged 1.6 goals in the second half across their last five matches, compared with Spartak’s 0.8. The hosts’ expected win is also supported by their higher xG—1.75 versus the opponents’ 1.27—as well as the fact that Spartak concede an average of 1.67 goals per match, while CSKA have scored 1.8 goals per game over their last five league fixtures.