CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: match statistics

CSKA Sofia remain unbeaten in the league, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw, while scoring 11 goals and earning 13 points across their last five matches. At home, the hosts have won both games, averaging 2.5 goals scored with an xG of 2.38, registering 8.5 shots on target per match and maintaining 69% possession. Botev Vratsa have failed to win any of their four league matches this season, and have lost both away games, conceding an average of 2 goals and allowing opponents an xG of 1.52. The visitors generate just 1.16 xG and 2 shots on target per away match, which stands in clear contrast to CSKA’s attacking superiority. The hosts’ defence is not flawless, as they concede an average of 1.5 goals at home; however, the gap in form and the quality of chances created strongly points towards a CSKA Sofia victory.

The signal for goals from both sides is particularly clear in the season data: Botev Vratsa have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. The hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals at home, while the visitors also allow opponents 2.0 goals per match, which should support the case for a CSKA Sofia goal. Botev Vratsa create chances worth an average of 1.16 xG, while CSKA’s last five matches indicate that their defence allowed opponents 1.47 xG, making an away goal a realistic scenario. CSKA’s form is nevertheless very strong, having scored 11 goals in their last five matches, while Botev have conceded 8 during that period. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a match in which both teams score — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal. Consequently, BTTS - No is not the preferred selection, as it only means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

In their last five matches, CSKA Sofia averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Botev Vratsa averaged 1.2, providing a clear basis for expecting at least two goals. Both teams exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their league matches so far, while in the last five rounds, each recorded matches with at least three goals in 80% of cases. The hosts have recently created chances worth 2.05 xG per match, whereas Botev’s defense allowed opponents 1.43 xG. At the same time, the absence of matches above 3.5 goals in both teams’ season data limits the strength of the signal for a high over, making Over 1.5 the safest choice.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Botev Vratsa were trailing at half-time in 2 of 5. During this run, CSKA averaged 1.0 goals before the break and conceded just 0.4, whereas the visitors scored only 0.2 first-half goals per match. By the final whistle, the difference in form is clear: the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.2 goals, while Botev suffered 3 defeats and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. CSKA’s attack also has a favorable matchup against the opposition’s defense, with the hosts averaging 0.93 xG and Botev allowing opponents 1.52 xG. The hosts are particularly reliable after the break, having won the second half in 80% of their last five matches, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding just 0.2.