CSKA Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia has a strong home profile: at their stadium they average 1.65 goals per match with xG 2.07, producing 16.65 shots and 5.35 on target while maintaining average possession of 58%. CSKA 1948 away record shows 1.59 goals and xG 1.44 with 11.12 shots and 4.47 on target; they are more efficient in conversion (14% vs 10%) and have a slightly better overall season tally (19 wins and 52 goals vs 18 wins and 46 goals for the hosts), which makes them dangerous despite creating fewer chances. Defensively the hosts are superior: CSKA Sofia concedes only 0.71 goals per home match with xGA 1.01, while CSKA 1948 concedes 0.94 away with xGA 1.35, and shutout rate is 18% vs 24% for the visitors. Form is comparable: hosts 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last five (PPG 2.0), visitors 3-0-2 (PPG 1.8), but the hosts’ advantage in chance creation (xG 2.07 vs 1.44 and 16.65 vs 11.12 shots) gives them a tangible edge. Based on this I predict a home win; approximate probabilities: home 55%, draw 22%, away 23%.

Seasonal stats give mixed signals: BTTS is 50% for CSKA Sofia and 41% for CSKA 1948, with a league average of 44%, so the baseline balance is close to even. xG supports goals from both sides — hosts have xG_for 1.53 versus opponents' xG_against 1.35, and visitors have xG_for 1.44 versus hosts' xG_against 1.24, suggesting both teams possess scoring potential. However, recent form weakens that signal: in the last 5 matches BTTS was only 40% for the hosts and 20% for the visitors, and the visitors concede on average 0.6 goals per match (hosts 0.8) in those five games. Additionally, the seasonal clean sheet rate is 31% for the hosts and 41% for the visitors with average goals conceded 1.13 (hosts) and 0.94 (visitors), which together reduce the likelihood of both teams scoring. Balancing the positive xG (1.53/1.44) against weaker BTTS metrics in the last 5 matches and the higher clean sheet rate for the visitors, I favor the "No BTTS" scenario (55% vs 45%).

The xG-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for the home side (xG_for 1.53 vs opponent xG_against 1.35 → average 1.44) and 1.34 for the visitors (xG_for 1.44 vs home xG_against 1.24 → 1.34), totaling 2.78 goals. Season-long data show home matches finished over 1.5 goals in 63% of cases and away matches in 71% — average ≈67% — which strongly supports Over 1.5. Over 2.5 occurred in 50% of home games and 59% of away games (average ≈55%), so with an expected 2.78 goals I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at about 62%; Over 3.5 was rarer (31% vs 18%, average ≈24%), so Under 3.5 has a clear edge. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and conceded 4 (0.8), the visitors scored 7 (1.4) and conceded 3 (0.6), and both teams average ~4.5 shots on target per game, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on these figures (expected total 2.78, season Over1.5 ~67% and high Over0.5: 88% home and 94% away), the best line to play is Over 1.5 (over).

CSKA 1948 led at half-time in 53% of their matches, and their average half-time points is 1.82 versus 1.56 for CSKA Sofia, indicating an away advantage at the break. The visitors keep a clean sheet at half-time in 71% of games and in only 6% of their matches were both teams on the scoresheet before the break, so the visitors’ lead at the break is frequently “clean.” Over the full match the metrics are similar (xG 1.53 for the home side vs 1.44 for the visitors, shots on target 4.5 vs 4.47), but CSKA 1948 have a higher win rate of 59% versus 56% for the home team and average 1.59 points in second halves vs 1.38 for the home side, which favors maintaining or extending the lead. Since many goals are scored in second halves (home teams have at least one goal in the second half in 81% of matches, visitors in 71%), the most likely data-driven scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 2/2).