CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia have won all of their last 5 home matches, scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game on their own ground. Their advantage in chance creation is reflected in a home xG of 2.18 compared with Slavia Sofia’s 0.91 away from home, as well as 8 shots on target for the hosts against 2.2 for the visitors. Slavia are nevertheless solid defensively on the road, conceding an average of 0.6 goals per match, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested result. CSKA have conceded 7 goals in their last 5 matches, but their home scoring record and a clearly higher volume of chances created still point to a home win.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is that both teams scored in only 20% of Slavia Sofia’s matches, compared with 67% of CSKA Sofia’s. The visitors kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches, but failed to score just as often, so either side could be held scoreless. Their attack averages 0.91 xG and 2.2 shots on target per match, compared with the hosts’ 1.11 xG and 3.0 shots on target. CSKA’s recent form points towards goals from both teams: across five matches, they averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with BTTS landing in 80% of those games. However, over the same period Slavia conceded only 0.6 goals per match, and BTTS occurred in just 20% of their games. Therefore, I consider it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of the teams’ matches so far. Slavia concede just 0.6 goals on average, while CSKA score an average of 0.67, limiting the hosts’ attacking potential despite their home advantage. Slavia, in turn, score an average of 1.0 goal, while CSKA concede 1.0; both teams also record few shots on target, at 2.2 and 3.0 per match, respectively. CSKA’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 3.2 goals, making the 2.5 line less reliable than 3.5. The 2.25-goal forecast accounts for this increase in attacking output but still points to a clear preference for Under 3.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: CSKA were level at the break in 5 of their 6 home matches, while Slavia were level in all 5 of their away games. After half-time, the visitors hold the advantage, averaging 0.8 goals compared with 0.33 for the hosts; CSKA concede an average of 0.83 goals in this part of the match, while Slavia concede 0.4. CSKA have failed to win any of their 6 home matches, whereas Slavia have won 2 of their 5 away games, strengthening the X/2 scenario. However, the risk of a draw at full-time remains high, as the hosts have drawn 4 of their 6 home matches and averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, regardless of venue.