CSM Satu Mare vs Afumaţi: match statistics

Afumaţi sit 11th, while CSM Satu Mare are only 19th, and the hosts are still without a win in 7 league matches. The visitors are clearly more effective, averaging 1.33 goals away from home compared with the hosts’ 0.33, while also recording 5.33 shots on target per match versus 2.67. The difference is further confirmed by the quality of chances created, with Afumaţi averaging 1.59 xG and CSM Satu Mare 1.11. The Satu Mare side have failed to score in 67% of their home matches and have collected just 0.6 points per game over their last five league fixtures, compared with Afumaţi’s 1.6 points. The visitors do concede 1.67 goals per match away from home, which increases the likelihood of a draw, but their attacking consistency and superior form point towards an away win.

The data clearly signals goals from both sides: BTTS occurred in 75% of CSM Satu Mare’s matches and in as many as 100% of Afumaţi’s fixtures. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while they have conceded an average of 1.75 and 1.67 goals per match, respectively. The hosts create plenty of chances, recording 2.03 xG and 17.5 shots per game, whereas Afumaţi registers 1.59 xG and 5.33 shots on target. Caution is warranted due to Satu Mare’s recent form: they have scored just 0.4 goals across their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of those games. Nevertheless, Afumaţi has posted 1.88 xG over its last five fixtures, with both teams scoring in 80% of them, so the BTTS - Yes scenario remains slightly more likely.

The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have cleared this line in 100% of their league matches so far. CSM Satu Mare concede an average of 1.75 goals per game, while Afumaţi concede 1.67, with neither side having kept a clean sheet yet. Their creative potential remains solid: CSM’s average xG stands at 2.03 and Afumaţi’s at 1.59, while the visitors have produced as much as 1.88 xG per game across their last five matches. Caution is advised with higher lines due to the hosts’ current form: they have scored just 0.4 goals per game in their last five appearances and have not once gone Over 2.5 goals. The projected total of 2.60 goals supports Over 1.5 more strongly than Over 2.5, while also suggesting relatively high safety for Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time followed by an Afumaţi victory: the visitors were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, losing none of them. CSM Satu Mare have recently averaged just 0.4 goals per match and have failed to win any of their previous five fixtures, while Afumaţi averaged 1.4 goals and won 40% of those games. After the break, the hosts have scored no goals in their last five matches, while conceding an average of 0.8, clearly increasing the risk of a weaker finish. Afumaţi, by contrast, average 1.6 goals in second halves in the current dataset and have scored 0.8 goals in them during their latest run, compared with 0.0 for the hosts. In addition, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, so a half-time draw is more likely than them taking the lead from the outset; however, their superior current form supports an Afumaţi win at the final whistle.